Independent Study Report
April 2006
The multitude of the people will, with one heart, proceed to build the richest and happiest country in the world – a country of the people, by the people, and for the people. – Sun Yatsen, father of modern China, 1919
Soon after settling into my window seat for the Beijing to New York return flight I came across a small story in China Daily that pretty well summed up the state of the People’s Republic of China in early 2006:
“Sales of adult diapers are booming as residents prepare themselves for lengthy journeys home on crowded trains for Lunar New Year. Many supermarkets…have reported an increase in sales of about 50 percent.…The number of train seats for people returning home for family reunions are limited because of the huge demand in the period. It means large numbers of passengers have to buy standing-only tickets and have to jam into all corners of carriages, even in toilets. This often makes it almost impossible for passengers to pass through and reach the toilets and they are forced to go without relieving themselves for the whole journey, up to 24 hours.”
Apart from generating the unpleasant image of dozens of train travelers nonchalantly defecating while chatting with a nephew or glancing out the window, the piece touches on every major obstacle to China’s continued prosperity: the regular, increasing, and unprecedented rural to urban migration; a severe shortage of support services and infrastructure; the raw human and industrial waste and overcrowding problems that have contributed to China’s environmental havoc; and the divide between the multitudinous poor, who are forced to urinate on themselves to get home for the holidays, and the growing middle and upper classes, who are not. It is nice to know that these disadvantaged souls could afford both the train ticket home and extra-absorbent undergarments, and one assumes the Chinese rail business is pleased about the record 144 million journeys during the Festival period of January 14 to February 29. But for a nation beginning to assume world power status, this is a black spot. And the fact that the article is written matter-of-factly and buried in the lower left corner of Page 3 just below a piece on banks handing out brand new yuan bills for traditional holiday cash giving suggests the indifference of the well-off, well-educated populace, who might rather be shopping.
With annual gross domestic product growth rates hovering just below double digits since 1980, the economic boom reported in every news outlet from here to Hohhot has waved a magic wand of prosperity across much of China, giving the governing party and much of the populace reason to cheer. The neo-communist country is awash with young people enjoying new jobs, toys, partners, and homes, and its cities are rapidly industrializing, modernized, and well-oiled. Yet there is a dark side to this full moon of development, as the almost incomprehensible economic growth of the past fifteen years has wrought havoc for millions of Chinese and endangered the land they call home.
“The development has definitely been a double-edged sword, because there have been many thousands, even millions of people, whose lives have improved dramatically in many ways, but at the same time there are certain problems for China,” said Wei Wei Yang, 25, an economics student at Nanjing University’s Johns Hopkins Center for Chinese and American Studies. “There is more pollution than ten years ago, and many farmers and people from the countryside are still very poor and upset with the government.”
Indeed, the rural-urban and rich-poor divides have yawned into vast, angry maws that threaten to swallow China’s peaceful prosperity. The land is shrouded in smog, pocked with dry, unusable land, and crisscrossed by increasingly polluted waterways. A new, consumerist culture is overwhelming ancient traditions. Freedoms of speech and the press are more on the government’s radar than at anytime since the Cultural Revolution.
Perhaps most crucially, the citizens of the People’s Republic of China, one-fifth of humanity, are by market forces and government fiat attempting to overcome an old nemesis, the deep roots of collectivism. The ruling People’s Communist Party has placed its hope for the future in a buzzword—innovation—that goes against its very political foundation and millennia of Confucian philosophy. Can members of a populace trained to work and think collectively and to blindly trust undisputed leaders be made to think and act for themselves, as creative individuals, without also desiring democracy? Time will tell, but in early 2006 most signs suggest that the current generation is indifferent to grasping and wielding control.
The Great Expansion and a New Society
“To get rich is glorious.”
– Deng Xiaoping
China took center stage as an international economic success story in 2005 – surpassing Britain and France to become the world’s 4th largest economy, replacing the US as the world’s leading technology goods exporter, and becoming gloriously almost-rich. Its trade surplus tripled to a record $102 billion as its economy surged another 9.9 percent, slightly above par for the past quarter century. Shanghai became the world’s busiest port by volume, handling about 443 million tons of cargo, and, perhaps most importantly, the 170 commercial lending institutions of China’s much-derided banking sector achieved a non-performing loans percentage of 30, down from nearly 60 percent in 1999 – a sign that most Chinese now have enough to make good on their interest, debt and loan repayments.
The purchase of homes, cars, luxury goods, leisure items and other totems of materialism, primarily by the under-40 generation, are symptoms of a tectonic cultural and societal shift away from traditional values and strict morality towards a more selfish consumerist culture. No more the selfless droning comrade of socialism and labor nor the obedient, domesticated wife, today’s citizens of the People’s Republic want to purchase Western goods, own property, drive a car, have casual sex, and the booming economy is increasingly allowing them their hearts’ desire.
A stroller down Nanjing Xilu, HuaHai Lu or any Shanghai thoroughfare in 2006 will be greeted with six to eight story mega-malls plastered with digital billboards and flashing neon and fast-food restaurants of every imaginable sort, crowded with young adults emptying their pockets of disposable income. In Beijing, construction of malls and supermarkets grew so crowded by February that the government announced limits on retail construction within the Second and Third Ring Roads. Although there remains a notable absence of international print media, a Shanghai newsstand presents a tableau not uncommon to a New Yorker: Vogue, Elle, Mademoiselle, Men’s Health, FHM, and Maxim jostle each other for space and the attention of passersby, with images of bare midriffs and Seven Secret Sex Tips stark next to food stands offering skewered meats.
As they embrace the Western world’s pleasure, health, and shopping obsessed lifestyle, however, many Chinese twentysomethings see traditional Chinese life quietly fading away. “When I was young, nobody had a car; people rode their bike. But now everybody seems to have one, and they’re all moving so fast,” said Lydia Wang, 21, an English major at Changzhou Teacher’s College. She plans to work as an interpreter for an international business and said that cars had brought a faster pace.
“I think China is becoming more materialist and it’s definitely taking away from our culture,” said Wang, furrowing her brow. “It’s becoming a very different China. We’re not very used to this kind of life, so it is changing us, not always for the better.”
“It is much harder to find a decent teahouse now,” said accounts manager at insurance conglomerate Manulife-Sinochem and Shanghai resident Feng Wang, 28, tucking her long black hair into a light blue knit cap as she prepared to head out into a wintry January Wednesday. “Much more difficult than even five years ago, because everybody wants Starbucks and American coffee. I hate coffee!”
She is clearly in the minority, as crowded Starbucks and other coffee shops and fast food joints have elbowed aside teahouses and traditional Chinese noodle shops in Shanghai and across much of China. The country had 1,200 KFC’s and almost 800 McDonald’s restaurants as of early 2006, both of which have presumably had a hand in the doubling of China’s obesity rate in the past decade.
“And Christmas and Valentine’s Day are like real holidays– these are occasions to go out and buy gifts now, but they weren’t when I was little,” added Wang. “Now all of the people are buying things and the shops are offering big discounts.”
Flaunting wealth as shiny status symbol, China’s newly minted millionaires need no such discounts. Strutting into Louis Vuitton and Mercedes dealerships, booking designer vacations, buying yachts, fancy cars, and expensive jewelry; this high-end group is being catered to like never before. Their $2 billion 2005 luxury spending represented 12 percent of global sales for such items, third behind the US and Japan. British expat Rupert Hoogewerf founded the Hurun Report in 1999 expressly for China’s wealthy –there are now over 400,000 US$ millionaires – and its annual best products issue listed over 400 high-end Chinese products. Hoogewerf says the wealthy in China are predominantly new money, as opposed to Europe, where there is a great deal of inherited wealth. As a result, “the Chinese are more willing to spend,” he told Shanghai Daily.
And they want other people to know they are spending, almost to the point of tackiness. “At this point I would say that the new wealthy can be voracious and are attracted to the more ostentatious products, definitely,” said Yonggui Wang, 46, Professor of Marketing and Strategy at Nanjing University. “They want everything, and they want it now. So it’s basically a field day for Chinese and Western producers.” Speaking of field days, the playing of golf has spread like wildfire, but not because the Chinese have any particular talent for it, according to Shanghai businessman Chow Wei: “People play because they think they're rich, or because they want you to think it." Finally, The New York Times recently reported a new trend that has wealthy Chinese men retaining lawyers and placing newspaper and magazine ads to buy themselves a bride, preferably a beautiful virgin, for up to a million dollars.
“I do see more malls and more people buying expensive things,” said Hopkins Center grad student Yang. “I don’t know whether it’s definitely good or definitely bad for Chinese culture, but it’s definitely something different. We will see if lasts and marks a long-term change for our culture.”
One thing that has lasted is demand for new buildings. In laying down an astounding 4.7 billion square feet in new construction in 2005, China’s urban centers required armies of migrant laborers. Shanghai built more living and working space than there is in all of New York’s office buildings, and its 4000 skyscrapers nearly double that of New York. To fill jobs in construction and other labor sectors, China experienced an urban migration the equal of which has never been seen in human history. Some 150 million Chinese have flocked to the cities as the rural-urban population ratio went from 82-18 in 1978 to 35-65 in 2004, leading to an explosion of new construction. (China has four times the population of the US, but consider that while the United States has a grand total of nine cities with a population over 1 million, the PRC has 170. ) Many of these workers, skipped over by China’s economic growth and easy riches, must periodically return home, to their families, to the reality of their neglected way of life.
“They are constructing buildings that are way up here,” said Feng Wang, 28, raising her hand high over her head, “but meanwhile most of the people are still down here,” putting her hand down at her ankles.
Asymmetric Development
Many migrant laborers have taken up residence in their adopted cities, creating an urban underclass left behind by the asymmetric economic development. Urban ghettoes have sprung up in the shadows of wondrous new skyscrapers and retail complexes. China Daily columnist Raymond Zhou recently made note of the trend, with a story on the rise of poor and neglected neighborhoods he dubbed “urban villages:”
“The majority of residents are migrant workers. The streets, if they can be called that, are narrow, dirty, and lined with all kinds of small shops selling fake or shoddy merchandise. It’s the birthplace of much of a city’s sweatshops and crime cases.”
Common to much of the developing world, a vast rural-urban divide and dangerous, poverty-stricken ghettoes may not seem a reason for concern, but in China in 2006 their breadth and depth highlight a broader trend: the cleavage of two Chinas.
In August 2005, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released their annual Report on the World’s Social Situation, entitled “The Inequality Predicament.” The 158-page study argues that greater economic globalization is often accompanied by increased inequality between and within countries. “High migration streams engender and exacerbate inequalitites,” the authors state. “Many migrants encounter circumstances that leave them vulnerable to exploitation…inequalities between migrants and resident populations are even wider when migrants constitute a source of cheap labor.” Further negative consequences in many areas, including employment, job security and wages, create dangerous tensions. “Ignoring inequality in the pursuit of development is perilous,” the report warns. “Focusing exclusively on economic growth and income generation as a development strategy is ineffective, as it leads to the accumulation of wealth by a few and deepens the poverty of many.” Perhaps most importantly, the UN report goes on to document how inequality creates divergences in regards to health, life expectancy, birth rates, disease contraction, and education, and describes the lingering intergenerational dimensions that make it more and more difficult to overcome over time.
The post-boom People’s Republic is a textbook example. The consumption and literacy maps of the 2005 State of China Atlas suggest that a journey beyond an invisible DMZ about 150 miles inland from China’s developed eastern coastline will increasingly turn up illiterate locals with inadequate health services and no disposable income. In 2001, two scholars confirmed that China’s educational inequality “has created occupational and income gaps between the coastal urban business elites and the farmers of remote areas and inland provinces.” Today, the majority Han people, who dominate the developed southeast and coastal regions, have literacy rates almost double that of minorities. The latest statistics show that the wealthiest 10 percent—all urban—earn 45 percent of China’s income, with the bottom 10—predominantly rural—a slightly more modest 1.4 percent. Furthermore, in 1978 about 85 percent of China’s rural population was provided collective health care via the “barefoot doctor” system. Today, it is less than 20 percent. In the most recent World Health Organization survey measuring the equality of medical treatment, China–the world’s fourth largest economy, remember—placed 187th out of 191 countries. According the New York Times, “the collapse of socialized medicine and staggering cost increases have opened a yawning gap between health care in the cities and the rural areas, where the former system of free clinics has disintegrated.” Recent reform measures have failed, with peasants overburdened by annual payments, hepatitis and tuberculosis spreading, vulnerability to SARS and bird flu epidemics increasing, and resentment festering. And, after a small bump during the 1980’s, the economic fortunes of rural farmers have declined; with China’s WTO entry in 2001, cheap, highly subsidized agricultural goods from developed nations undermined their livelihood, leading to income declines for almost half of rural households.
After working 12-hour days six days a week on construction projects, Zhang Xiao, 28, from Guizhou Province in the southwest, waited in line for 7 hours at Beijing Railway Station in late January before finally getting a ticket home. This will be his first time back since he migrated to Beijing shortly after the 2005 Spring Festival, and he is lugging three bags, one with new clothes for his wife and another holding food and toys for his son.
“I’m going home to spend the festival with my family,” he said, smiling. “My hometown is very poor and most of the young male villagers go to big cities for work all year round to earn a living. So the short period during Spring Festival is very valuable for us to reunite with our families.”
Zhang was at first shocked by what he found in Beijing, how different people’s lives were—how much they owned, how much time they had to enjoy themselves. But he quickly came to appreciate their lifestyle and said it was almost like they lived in a different, better country.
“To be honest with you, I’m very envious of the city dwellers’ life.” Zhang told me. “They have a decent job and can entertain themselves as they wish after work. I hope my son can lead such a life.”
Zhang is not alone in his envy, with good reason. The economic boom changing Chinese culture and society has passed him and hundreds of millions like him by, leaving them struggling for survival. From a plateau of about 58 percent in 1985, average rural incomes have fallen to less than a third of urban incomes, and tens of millions have lost some or all of their land due to urban and suburban sprawl.
Such problems are especially acute for a nation with a deep and abiding connection to the land and over two-thirds of its population—almost 900 million people— still living outside urban areas. In 1919, Li Dizhao, former long-time head librarian at Peking University and respected communist thinker whose influential study group included Mao Zedong, wrote:
“Our China is a rural nation and most of the laboring class is made up of peasants. If they are not liberated, then our whole nation will not be liberated; their sufferings are the sufferings of our whole nation; their ignorance is the ignorance of our whole nation; the advantages and defects of their lives are the advantages and defects of all of our politics. Go out and develop them and cause them to know that they should demand liberation, speak out about their sufferings, throw off their ignorance and be people who will themselves plan their own lives.”
How rural China has responded to its perceived slight, then, has been no surprise. From 10,000 incidents of rural protest in 1993, China’s Public Security Ministry estimated 74,000 riots and demonstrations in 2004 and 87,000 in 2005, a boom of political uprisings some are calling the Latin Americanization of China, in reference to that region’s political instability. In recent months a string of rural protests turned violent, including one in Dongzhou, 125 miles northeast of Hong Kong, at which authorities killed at least six locals, and another in Panlong, in Guandong Province, where over 60 residents were injured and a young girl killed by baton-wielding officers.
Both incidents were a reaction to illegal land grabs by local officials, a practice that has become increasingly common as China’s real estate and development boom moves beyond urban centers. The de facto privatization of agriculture was a key part of late-1970’s rural reform, in which rural collectives were disbanded and land ownership, although officially belonging to the village, was essentially handed to individual households through usage rights. The backlash in recent years has come as city, council, and village officials have seized and purchased the land at cut-rate prices—often paying agricultural as opposed to market value—illegally separating farmers from their livelihoods. Peasants and rural villagers that have begun to fight back could even use the revered Chairman Mao as inspiration: “We should struggle against society in order to regain the hope that we have lost,” he wrote in 1919. “We should die fighting.”
Clearly concerned, the ruling party has taken notice. President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao both celebrated Chinese New Year with farmers’ families in rural areas – for the third straight year – announcing that improving the lot of farmers and curbing the encroachment of development would be the focus of the newest five-year plan, which seeks “to build a new socialist countryside” and went into effect early this year. Wen highlighted the land grab problems in a late January speech, blaming rural unrest on “illegal seizures of farmland without reasonable compensation” and warning rural bureaucrats against making “a historical mistake” by failing to protect farmers and their lands, which he predicted would lead to more violence. He cautioned against towns seizing land or selling confiscated fields to developers as a way to raise public funds: “This is a key issue that affects the stability of the countryside and the society, and it must be clearly recognized by all levels of government and party committees.” Days later President Hu Jintao gave a similar message to the Politburo: “If we cannot succeed in developing agriculture and rural areas while helping farmers improve their lives markedly, we will fail to reach the goal of building a comparatively prosperous society.”
The reforms have begun to take shape. Late last year they repealed a 2,600-year-old farm tax and instituted free public schooling for rural children. New legislation is intended to bring rural health care and education back to 1970’s era levels, and a long-discussed property rights law is closing in on passage, but still being intensely debated. Perhaps the most impressive instance of increased government vigilance was the news that He Feng, the official who hired thugs to attack protesting villagers in the Dongzhou incident, was recently and swiftly sentenced to life in prison.
But these improvements do not an equal society make. Corruption is still rampant throughout the countryside, and most officials involved in crackdowns are being neither fired, as the latest reforms recommend they should, nor disciplined. Even though government prosecutions against corrupt party officials doubled in 2002, both the frequency and sums involved are increasing. Additionally, the repealed farm tax represented only .01 of China’s GDP, or $2.86 billion. That number breaks down to about $3.50 per rural resident, and reveals more about the way China’s economy has industrialized in recent decades than any legitimate concern for farmers. In fact, 28 of China’s 42 provinces had already scratched the tax the previous year. Discriminatory laws make life more difficult for rural to urban migrants. Health care and education still lag drastically. And then there is most worrisome problem: environmental deterioration.
The Environmental Fallout of Expansion
When the wealthy vie with each other in splendor and display while the poor squeeze each other to death; when the poor do not enjoy a moment’s rest while the rich are comfortable; when the poor lose more and more while the rich keep piling up treasures; when in some more extravagant desires awaken, and in others an ever more burning hatred; when some become more and more arrogant and overbearing in their conduct, and others ever more miserable and pitiful until gradually the most perverse and curious customs arise, bursting forth as though from a hundred springs and impossible to stop, all of this will finally congeal in an ominous vapor which will fill the space between heaven and earth with its darkness.
– Chinese scholar Gong Zizhen.
Moving through China in January 2006, I am astounded by the Nostradamic accuracy of Zizhen’s Gothic 1830 prophecy. Everywhere one looks decadence is contrasted with destitution and the ominous vapor – permasmog – is pea-soup thick and getting worse. In the Shanghai area, the smog was so bad during the Lunar New Year peak travel season that highway accidents surged 50 percent as drivers had barely 20 feet of visibility. Although the Chinese media played up a two-point downward tic in oil imports in 2005, behind the statistic was the country’s increasing reliance on coal. In releasing sixteen percent of the world’s carbon dioxide and becoming the world’s 2nd biggest producer of greenhouse gas emissions behind the US, China very nearly crossed 2 billion tons of coal burnt in 2005. (Only South Africa generates a greater percentage of its electricity via burning coal.) Compounding the problem is China’s new must have item: the automobile. With almost 6 million units sold in 2005, China became the world’s 2nd-largest auto market after the US, and one of its most prolific emissions polluters. With very little warning, China has reached what many are calling an environmental tipping point; where there was once air, there is now a great deal more, and none of it is good. With pollution levels estimated to triple or even quadruple over the next 15 years, the problem is neither limited to China nor something that will just go away.
The awe-inspiring development boom has over the past 50 years cut the habitable and usable land in half and degraded 40% of arable land. Part of 60 percent of China’s major rivers are classified as unsuitable for human contact, and seven of the world’s ten most polluted cities are in China. Approximately one third of the country receives acid rain and round 400,000 premature deaths each year can be attributed to pollution. China has 339 million goats and sheep, compared to 7 million in the U.S., and feeding them takes entire swaths of countryside. Without roots to hold the soil, much of North China’s open land has turned to sand as deserts advanced hundreds of miles each year, and dust storm season has become an annual occurrence in Beijing. A major chemical spill that poisoned the water supply of the city of Harbin, in Northeast China, leaving 10 million area residents without water for a week, was symptomatic of a larger potable water crisis. And, perhaps most worrisome to the rest of the world, pollution does not respect national borders; the United States Environmental Protection Agency recently reported that 25 percent of Los Angeles’ pollution can, on any given day, be of Chinese origin. Acknowledging the crisis, China’s Deputy Environment Minister Pan Yue showed some rare candor in a summer 2005 interview for Der Spiegel, saying China’s economic “miracle will end soon because the environment can no longer keep pace.”
Zhuzhou in Hunan Province could serve as exhibit A for the problems of China’s newly industrialized cities. The Xianjing River links three cities totaling 10 million in population – Zhuzhou, Xiangtan, Changsha – and carries dangerously high levels of mercury and cadmium. In Zhuzhou’s industrial northern zone are over 200 glass-production, paper-making, melting and pesticide factories, and with all the pollutants released daily the air has gotten so toxic that taxi drivers refuse to go there. Yet with no means to move, the poor are forced to stay, and suffer.
“Some residents have moved out of the region, but for those poor and laid-off worker families, they have no choice but to suffer,” said Xu Wei, a recently laid-off driver. Peng Hualin, 95, grew up in Zhuzhou and does not like what he sees today. “What we breathe in every day is smog, not clean air.”
As China eyes a great and complex problem, words of change have been spreading like wildfire. “The biggest threat to China's growth is now the environment,” wrote Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman. “That is the economic, environmental and national security issue of our day. Nothing else is even close.” In an October 2005 China Daily editorial, Zou Hanru urged the Chinese people to give up their beloved wood chopsticks as a means to save their forests, and thus, their country. Three months later in that same paper, columnist Gong Li insisted:
“the country has to face squarely the matter of handling contradictions between economic growth and pressures exerted by the huge population, limited resources (especially energy) and worsening environment. This calls for the promotion of a cyclical economy, energy-saving economy and environmentally friendly economy. A new road of industrialization ought to be exploited, characterized by high science and technology content, energy efficiency, low pollution, and optimized use of human resources.”
As with growing rural unrest, the ruling PCP has taken note, with a series of anti-pollution and green projects focused on what President Hu Jintao calls “sustainable development.” China’s first major project will be a PCB management and disposal project in Northeast China’s Zhejiang and Liaoning provinces over the next four years. As part of its commitment to 2001’s Stockholm Convention, the Sino-Envirnmental Protection Agency said it will spend over $32 million in the period to reduce 6 to 8 tons of serious PCB’s in the region and prevent further problems. Even though a recent PCP-sponsored poll declared 87 percent of Shanghai residents satisfied with governmental response to their urban environment, Shanghai recently made pubic a $4.9 billion, three-year environmental clean-up blueprint. Although it will include 260 projects, the plan zeroes in the city’s water treatment facilities, which, for a major metropolis in which residents cannot drink the water, is not a bad idea. In Qingdao, eastern Shandong province, the Party announced plans to build a wind power farm that will include five of Asia’s largest turbines. With a funding assist from Germany, the farm is to be completed in time to provide power for maritime events in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. And in the area of green technologies China has shown some leadership. Work recently began near Beijing on suburban Tangye New Town, which in about three years’ time will be a seven-square mile city with housing for 180,000 that can “convert its waste into fuel, draw its energy from the sun, and return its water to the ground through natural drainage and irrigation.” The compound will save up to 18 million liters of water per day. Additionally, China’s Ministry of Science and Technology in Beijing is one of only about 60 gold-standard green buildings in the world, which means it is optimized to reduce waste, emissions, and energy use.
Beyond the worry that it may be too little too late, the major concern with all of these grand projects is expense. For example, after adding 50 gigawatts of generating capacity in 2004 and 65 in 2005—equivalent to adding the electrical grid of Brazil in a single year —the State Grid Corp of China will spend nearly US $100b to upgrade the country electricity transmission network over the next five years. And while China’s cleanup of the Songua River spill was praised by United Nations Environment Program officials in January, it is likely to cost $3 billion when all is said and done. Cleaning up their ecological dirty laundry will take all the money, innovation, and determination the PCP can muster.
The Dream of Innovation
Acknowledging its dire straits, the ruling party has turned to its people for answers. Twenty-eight years after Deng Xiaoping first touted the importance of scientific progress, the focus at the 4th National Science and Technology Conference held January in Beijing was on making China an “innovation-oriented country.” During his keynote speech, Premier Wen Jiabao called for a progression from a resource-reliant to an innovation-driven economy: “Innovation is the soul of scientific and technological development and the engine behind national development.” President Hu Jintao, too, has invoked the word several times, and both were behind a much-hyped fifteen-year plan for doubling research and development investment and overhauling the science and technology sectors to foster increased patent filings and strengthen copyrights.
But is China capable?
“Of course we can innovate – we have very intelligent scientists and technology experts, good instruction, adequate funding,” said Yonggui Wang, the marketing professor. “The question is when, and how? Innovation will give our country recognition, but it hasn’t happened yet.” Yet even as revered a personage as Mao has admitted China’s shortcomings in regards to creativity and valuable innovations. “China ought to make a greater contribution to humanity. But for a long time in the past its contribution was far too small.” A People’s Daily editorial that ran shortly after the National Science Conference this January, echoed these sentiments and went further:
“We have to admit that China faces a weak basis for its economic and social development with poor independent innovation performance and will have to face various pressures over the course of its development. However, that should never be an excuse for backwardness. Instead, it should be the motivation to catch up.”
To that end, ideas to foster innovation have ranged far and wide. There is the new government plan to invest in R & D and new sciences and technologies over the next couple decades. A People’s Daily editorial recommended major international scientific programs and competitions to foster greater technological energy and commitment within China, and China Daily suggested incentives to retain and incubate Chinese talent. “Innovation is not so widely embraced as a lifeline by Chinese enterprises. Excessive reliance on low-cost labor has prevented many [Chinese businesses] from investing in self-owned technologies, their real core competitive edges.” One movement has recommended harnessing the vast, untapped potential of the rural population while another has centered on the creation of a definitive brand name. “I find it very interesting and somewhat troubling that China does not yet have a major international brand,” said Wang, the marketing professor. “Korea has Samsung and Hyundai, Japan has Sony and Toyota, even tiny Finland has Nokia, but China has none.”
All are worthy ideas, undoubtedly, and a great brand might put Chinese creativity on the map. But like Band-Aids for interior bleeding, they are superficial cures for a deeper problem, the result of a unique beast in world history: a liberal socialist state. And to get a better idea of its potential future success, a look at China’s centuries-long debate between individualism and collectivity, its history of working for the greater good and struggling for selfish advancement and creativity, is instructive.
Much of Chinese culture over the past two and a half millennia has centered on the Confucian ideal of datong, or Grand Harmony, which does not appear conducive to individualistic creativity:
“When the Grand Harmony was pursued, a public and common spirit ruled all under the sky….words were sincere and they cultivated harmony…possessions were used, but not hoarded for selfish reasons. Work was encouraged but not for selfish advantage. In this way, selfish schemings were repressed.”
Thus all proposed social advancements have had to first address this common foundation. As a result, Chinese economy and society, although generally smoothly run over centuries of dynastic rule, advanced in fits and starts, if at all. As early as the mid-18th century, Western visitors were struck by a China unable to progress, perhaps heading inexorably towards nothingness. In 1763, Nicolas Boulanger noted a lack of creativity and, in taking a severely pessimistic view, predicted the Cultural Revolution in all but name:
“All the remains of her ancient institutions, which China now possesses, will necessarily be lost; they will disappear in the future revolutions; as what she hath already lost of them vanished in former ones; and finally, as she acquires nothing new, she will always be on the losing side.”
Their best hope, many believed, was in reaching beyond its borders and joining the stream of the global marketplace, which was formally undertaken when the Qing Dynasty ruler signed the Treaty of Nanjing with Britain in 1842. Yet Communism triumphed about a century later, and as the Cultural Revolution peaked in the mid-70’s, many saw the socialist educational system and increasingly open economy undermining Chinese ambition and advantage.
“If we do not rely mainly on our own efforts but, as Deng Xiaoping advocated, rely solely on importing foreign techniques, copying foreign designs and technological processes and patterning our equipment on foreign models, we will forever trail behind foreigners…China would be reduced step by step to a raw materials supplying base for imperialism and social-imperialism, a market for their commodities, and an outlet for their investment.If the new-type socialist universities train nothing but plain, ordinary workers, then we can proudly say that they have completely destroyed the ladder for climbing to higher positions.”
A major goal of Chairman Mao’s Great Leap Forward program of the early 1950’s, in fact, was to narrow the “’three great differences’ – between industry and agriculture, town and country, and manual and mental labour.” Efforts towards bridging the first two differences have failed miserably in the proceeding half century, and in fact have widened significantly, as described above. Closing the third, meanwhile, is not only a 21st century impossibility, but for a China seeking to innovate and assume a leadership role on the global economics stage, undesirable. In recently adding capacity to its exploding auto industry, China did not attempt to design a sleek, super-modern facility that would save both money and the environment, or copy a successful foreign model. Instead, they bought one already functioning in Brazil and began to move it, piece by piece, halfway around the world. A recent baby step offered a degree of measured optimism: After China announced in March that the new speed rail lines connecting Shanghai to Beijing and Hangzhou will not use any foreign technology, railways minister Zhijun Liu qualified the statement: “Our technology is a re-innovation on the basis of assimilating advanced technologies of foreign countries.”
Making unfettered private innovation more difficult, the state machinery is still deeply embedded in the economy. The state employs one third of the urban workforce and controls 38 percent of GDP, 56 percent of the country’s fixed industrial assets, the financing, banking, telecom, energy, autos, and natural resources sectors and the majority of investment projects, credit, and land-use rights. Only 40 of the 1520 Chinese companies listed on the world’s stock exchanges are private firms. Moreover, even though one official was recently sentenced to 15 years in prison for taking bribes, a three-year-old, major anti-corruption drive has proven more difficult than originally hoped. “China’s government bureaucracies are rife with corruption and the eradication will take years if not decades,” said President Hu. So at the same time China is telling its countrymen to innovate, it maintains illegally tight control on the reins of free enterprise across industries.
Yet many informed voices, including Booker Prize-winning novelist and Chinese national Ha Jin, see the increased protests and cultural shift away from traditional moral values as a sign of impending individualism and democracy, the budding of a new China.
“Young people have become cynical about all the old rules, and their sense of personal self-worth is stronger. People think about how much money they can make, and what kind of life they want to live. All these are Western influences. Individualism is not a bad thing anymore. That is a big step forward.”
A raging debate on the power and import of socialism has been raging through Chinese parliament, however, suggesting such voices may have “underestimated the continued appeal of socialist ideas in a country where glaring disparities between rich and poor, rampant corruption, labor abuses and land seizures offer daily reminders of how far China has strayed from its official ideology.” Gao Xudong, highly-respected Technology Professor at Tsinhua University, one of China’s finest academies, saw another, more systemic obstacle to innovation.
“There is no sense of urgency among Chinese technology companies to innovate and develop their own technologies. Mostly I think it’s an issue of confidence. There is a lack of risk-taking in terms of testing new ideas. Many important people – government and business leaders – still don’t understand the importance of developing our own technology. If China cannot innovate, its economy will inevitably plateau, even wither.”
In the 1820’s, German philosopher George Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel touched a similar nerve, blaming China’s dearth of progress on what he perceived as a lack of boldness and self-esteem in its people, who:
“’cherish the meanest opinion of themselves, and believe that men are born only to drag the car of Imperial Power…the burden which presses them to the ground, seems to them to be their inevitable destiny: and it appears nothing terrible to them to sell themselves as slaves, and to eat the bitter bread of slavery.’”
A further parsing of Hegel’s reflections on the nature of human beings and their proclivities for recognition, individuality and innovation, crossed with Francis Fukuyama’s assertion regarding the progress of history will shed light on China today. What separates man from the animals, Hegel argued, is his desire for the attentions of other members of his species, his desire to be recognized as a being of particular worth or dignity. Hegel believed that this drive for recognition, and accompanying emotions like anger and pride, incited the American and French Revolutions and drove the historical political process. The establishment of liberal democracy, therefore, expressed the end goal of the human urge for recognition – equal rights, dignity, and political worth for all. Fukuyama went a step further, employing this concept, what Aristotle called the thymotic urge, in his classic book The End of History and the Last Man, as the missing link between liberal democracy and liberal economics, and asserting that desire and reason could explain industrialization but only the urge for recognition explained the self-determinative desire often concomitant with economic development:
The social changes that accompany advanced industrialization, in particular universal education, appear to liberate a certain demand for recognition that did not exist among poorer and less educated people. As standards of living increase, as populations become more cosmopolitan and better educated, and as society as a whole achieves a greater equality of condition, people begin to demand not simply more wealth but recognition of their status. If people were nothing more than desire and reason, they would be content to live in market-oriented authoritarian states like Franco’s Spain, or a South Korea or Brazil under military rule.
Or Red China, apparently, for in 2006 that country seems to have put Fukuyama’s assertion on its head. If Fukuyama were right, China’s new urbane sophisticates – educated, well-off – would be demanding democracy now. Yet the great masses of struggling, 19th-century-living rural residents are fighting almost daily for change and recognition while the cosmopolitans are seeking recognition of a baser sort, blissfully buying beautiful virgins to marry, golfing for show, and snapping up bling. Does China, then, lack a thymotic urge, which might bring about not only liberal democracy, but creativity and innovation as well? Impossible to say for sure, but there some signs. A well-circulated People’s Daily editorial acknowledged a certain shortcoming in this regard:
“The whole society should be educated to be more scientifically minded and wipe off the negative elements in the traditional culture which discourage the mentality of independent innovation. Our society needs an active and democratic atmosphere for innovation.”
The People’s Communist Party has not been fostering a democratic atmosphere of late. In March 2005, the party asserted its authority over rural elections after locals’ attempts to replace the director of a village committee led to a police raid in which farmers were blasted with water hoses. China, with 150 million users and over 700,000 websites, is the world’s second largest Internet market; yet closer monitoring of online news and commentary postings has led to the imprisonment of over 60 Chinese nationals and recently prodded Reporters Without Borders to dub China “The World Champion” of Internet censorship. The Party announced recently that it had shutdown 76 websites since September 2005, and this is in addition to a media crackdown that included replacing three prominent newspaper and magazine editors. On the same day that Google announced that its China edition would not offer email or blogging, China’s Propaganda Department ordered the closing of China Youth Daily supplement Bing Dian (Freezing Point), a weekly newspaper that often addressed touchy political and social subjects. And when Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao met in Beijing last November, Hu had resolved none of the twenty-five human rights cases on a list Bush had given him two months prior.
Yet the problems don’t end there. Consider this rebuff from the opening lines of China’s first white paper on democracy, released last October:
“Democracy is an outcome of the development of political civilization of mankind. It is also the common desire of people all over the world. Democracy of a country is generated internally, not imposed by external forces.”
And then stir in the findings of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs, who in the September/October Foreign Affairs smartly detail how “economic growth, rather than being a force for democratic change in tyrannical states, can sometimes be used to strengthen oppressive regimes.”
In light of the proliferation of politically-oriented blogs, open-minded shops and malls, and the availability of modern Western goods, most college students I interviewed over several weeks in January considered China if not a full-fledged democracy, then at least free enough. “As for democracy, our government tells us it is coming, but we don’t know when,” said Yang, whose view was typical. “Personally, I feel free to do almost whatever I like, but I guess some people don’t. It’s all about what you want to do or say, and how you want to say it.” Most expressed a desire for what might be considered the American Dream: a good, solid job, a car, a house, financial security. Very few of them noted any problems along the periphery, from the poor, or the environment, or felt the need to demand greater freedom of expression. A an April 2006 New York Times article about Google in China quoted Kai-Fu Lee, head of Google in China and something of a celebrity there, as saying: “I don’t think they care that much (about democracy and human rights in China). I think people would say: ‘Hey, US democracy, that’s a good form of government. Chinese government, good and stable, that’s a good form of government. Whatever, as long as I get to go to my favorite Web site, see my friends, live happily.’”
Has the combination of its unique, collectivist history and liberal economics and open markets remade China in the image of the West sans the urge for recognition, for self-determination? Like a human clone without a soul, China’s new middle class seems to want whatever luxuries and decadence the state is offering, and little more. One begins to see how Fukuyama and Hegel have been put on their head.
“They also have a thymotic pride in their own self-worth, and this leads them to demand democratic governments that treat them like adults rather than children, recognising their autonomy as free individuals. Communism is being superseded by liberal democracy in our time because of the realisation that the former provides a gravely defective form of recognition.”
I’d like to believe that Fukuyama’s famous “end of history” conclusions are valid today, but, as impossible as it might seem, 2500 years of collectivist thinking plus a half century of harshly imposed communism, abetted quite suddenly and surprisingly by the ability to own whatever your heart desires, may have bred the democratic urge out of a populace. The key question might be whether the cultural sea change I detailed above will also include a need for greater freedom, for self-determination, and a true liberal democracy.
Regardless, the destinies of China’s economy, resources, and environment are directly linked to that of its politics. In a nation where two-thirds of its residents aggressively push their noses against the windows of the decadent lives of the newly rich and the national mindset has long been one of anti-individualism, social unrest is likely to grow in the coming years as innovation lags. This is no recipe for a world power. If the PCP evolves into a multi-party democratic system, innovation will be more likely. If not, the boom will wilt and die.
References
Barboza, David. “China builds its dreams, and some fear a bubble.” The New York Times, October 18, 2005.
Barboza, David. “Trade surplus tripled in ’05, China says.” The New York Times, January 12, 2006.
Bradsher, Keith. “The fuel-sipping sedan that’s the hot seller in China.” The New York Times, October 26, 2005.
Editorial. “Try to build an innovation-oriented nation.” People’s Daily, January 12, 2006.
Cody, Edward. “In face of rural unrest, China rolls out reforms.” Washington Post, January 28, 2006.
Friedman, Thomas. “Living hand to mouth.” The New York Times. October 26, 2005.
French, Howard. W. “Police in China battle villagers in land protest.” The New York Times, January 17, 2006.
Fu, Jing. “Newly industrialized cities battle pollution.” China Daily, January 14, 2006.
Fukuyama, Francis. The End of History. 2002. New York:
Gittings, John. The Changing Face of China. 2005. New York:
Khan, Joseph. “City chief gets life in land crash.” The New York Times, February 10, 2006.
Khan, Joseph. “Chinese premier says seizing peasants’ land provokes unrest.” The New York Times, January 21, 2006.
Khan, Joseph. “A sharp debate erupts in China over ideologies.” The New York Times, March 12, 2006.
Lim, Louisa. “The high price of illness in China.” BBC News, March 2, 2006.
Marquand, Robert. “Love and money reshape family in China.” Christian Science Monitor, December 15-17, 2004.
McKibben, Bill. “The great leap: scenes from China’s industrial revolution.” Harper’s, November 2005.
Pei, Minxin. “The dark side of China’s rise.” Foreign Policy, March/April 2006.
Prestowitz, Clyde. Three Billion New Capitalists. 2005. New York:
Rong, Xeulan, and Shi, Tianjian. “Inequality in Chinese education.” Journal of Contemporary China, October 26, 2001.
Shreiner, Bruce. “China licking its fingers.” Washington Times, January 14, 2005.
Spence, Richard. In Search of Modern China. 1991. New York:
No Author. “Anti-corruption drive to last years,” China Daily, January 7, 2006.
No Author. “Adult diaper sales increase,” China Daily, January 24, 2006.
No Author. “Ex-pat entrepreneur charts the lives of China’s Wealthiest,” China Daily, January 24, 2006, p4.
No Author. “China: the ecological challenge.” Earlywarning, January 31, 2006. Available at: earlywarning.com.
No Author. “A rational attitude towards $100bn trade surplus.” People’s Daily, January 14, 2006.
No Author, “China outlines bold program for science,” Shanghai Daily, February 11, 2006.
Interview with Ha Jin, New Perspective Quarterly, Winter 2003.
Xu, Buging. “Chinese purchasing power.” People’s Daily, January 12, 2006.
Wang, Yang. “Grid Improvements Costly.” China Daily, January 24, 2006, p9.
You, Nuo. “Abolition of farm tax only a beginning.” China Daily, January 30, 2006.
Zhou, Raymond. “The role of entertainers.” China Daily, October 29, 2005.
Zhou, Raymond. “Festival gala as tasteless as chicken ribs,” China Daily, January 27, 2006.
Zhou, Raymond. “’Urban villages’ reminders of uneven growth,” China Daily, January 14, 2006, p4.
2.27.2009
Is Afghanistan Winnable?
Unwinnable.
That's what some analysts are calling Afghanistan, a label of great concern to the aid community as this war has become largely a hearts-and-minds affair.
U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton are reviewing the security situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to put together a new strategy before the next NATO summit in April.
The picture is not pretty.
Four Americans were killed by a roadside bomb in southern Afghanistan on Feb. 24, bringing the coalition death toll to 29 this year – more than double the total killed in the first two months of 2008 and the most since the war began in late 2001. Civilian casualties jumped in the past year, while kidnappings, assassinations and other attacks on the teetering Afghan government increased sharply. The Taliban are now established in 72 percent of the country, up from 54 percent a year ago.
In response, President Obama recently approved the deployment of an additional 17,000 troops, which will bring the U.S. total to more than 50,000. But the increased military presence is a risky step. More foreign troops are likely to bring more violence, which will lead to an increase in what David Kilcullen calls "accidental guerrillas" or locals who haphazardly take up arms against an invader, as many southern Afghans do when a battle erupts between coalition troops and the Taliban.
Thus in building schools and hospitals, solidifying government institutions and rebuilding infrastructure, successful aid and development efforts are integral to securing and stabilizing Afghanistan. Fortunately, both the European Union and NATO have in the past week intimated their willingness to boost aid.
But making Afghan aid effective has proven to be a near impossibility. Kickbacks, profiteering and all variety of corruption and incompetence are rampant, not only within the Afghan government but also among aid agencies and subcontractors.
Up to $5 billion has already been wasted, even as hundreds of thousands of Afghans are suffering from a severe drought in the north. Further, a lack of oversight and accountability leads to skimming at every level, resulting in failed and faulty projects. Finally, aid workers are increasingly under threat from attacks and kidnappings by al-Qaida, the Taliban and rogue criminals.
A recent study by a collection of U.K. aid agencies and European non-governmental organizations unveiled another problem:
"The deteriorating violence in Afghanistan does not primarily result from poverty, nor will economic incentives buy support for an opposed military presence or government. Following a long history of aid and military intervention, including during the Soviet occupation, Afghans are familiar with and suspicious of 'hearts and minds' strategies. Furthermore, aid represents a small component of most Afghans' coping strategies in times of conflict and transition. Predominant strategies include communal cooperation on rehabilitation and remittances. Interviewees in Paktia and Uruzgan repeatedly argued that security would be more fundamentally linked to improved governance and the removal of unsavory characters from positions of power."
Such perspectives are all the more convincing coming from Afghans themselves, particularly in light of seven years of fitful progress at best. With the emphasis on aid, an effective Afghanistan strategy must:
1. Incorporate clarified and shared goals. As detailed in a recent policy paper from the Center for Strategic & International Studies, the people of Afghanistan – and Pakistan, for that matter – must believe their security and prosperity are the key concern of all aid and military efforts. To that end, the U.S., EU and NATO allies, along with the development community, must iterate a unified plan with achievable targets, and stick to it.
2. Involve less contracting and subcontracting, and greater oversight. Aid agencies and project implementers must take greater control and responsibility for their work – and be held accountable for it. Such adjustments will not be easy, but they are necessary if aid agencies and NGOs are to ultimately succeed in building a more stable society.
3. Focus on governance and local democracy promotion in a few key provinces. Nothing is holding back progress in Afghanistan as much as a lack of national, regional and civic leadership. Civil society organizations, democracy promotion and community involvement need to be cornerstones of regional development strategies in Helmand, Uruzgan and along the border with Pakistan, from provincial to village levels. An underlying cause of Taliban resurgence, for example, is the drug trade, which remains successful mainly because governors and other officials are given near impunity to oversee poppy farming and opium smuggling. Efforts are being made to cut back production and improve security, but aid projects need to work the other end – removing corrupt warlords and putting legitimate, democratically-elected leaders in place.
A majority of Americans still support a renewed effort to salvage Afghanistan, but U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke predicted "a long, difficult struggle" that will be "much tougher than Iraq." It could be considerably longer and more difficult if the international community fails to implement the security and economic development projects that can provide a foundation for stable democratic institutions.
--
Posted to Devex.com on February 27, 2009
That's what some analysts are calling Afghanistan, a label of great concern to the aid community as this war has become largely a hearts-and-minds affair.
U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton are reviewing the security situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to put together a new strategy before the next NATO summit in April.
The picture is not pretty.
Four Americans were killed by a roadside bomb in southern Afghanistan on Feb. 24, bringing the coalition death toll to 29 this year – more than double the total killed in the first two months of 2008 and the most since the war began in late 2001. Civilian casualties jumped in the past year, while kidnappings, assassinations and other attacks on the teetering Afghan government increased sharply. The Taliban are now established in 72 percent of the country, up from 54 percent a year ago.
In response, President Obama recently approved the deployment of an additional 17,000 troops, which will bring the U.S. total to more than 50,000. But the increased military presence is a risky step. More foreign troops are likely to bring more violence, which will lead to an increase in what David Kilcullen calls "accidental guerrillas" or locals who haphazardly take up arms against an invader, as many southern Afghans do when a battle erupts between coalition troops and the Taliban.
Thus in building schools and hospitals, solidifying government institutions and rebuilding infrastructure, successful aid and development efforts are integral to securing and stabilizing Afghanistan. Fortunately, both the European Union and NATO have in the past week intimated their willingness to boost aid.
But making Afghan aid effective has proven to be a near impossibility. Kickbacks, profiteering and all variety of corruption and incompetence are rampant, not only within the Afghan government but also among aid agencies and subcontractors.
Up to $5 billion has already been wasted, even as hundreds of thousands of Afghans are suffering from a severe drought in the north. Further, a lack of oversight and accountability leads to skimming at every level, resulting in failed and faulty projects. Finally, aid workers are increasingly under threat from attacks and kidnappings by al-Qaida, the Taliban and rogue criminals.
A recent study by a collection of U.K. aid agencies and European non-governmental organizations unveiled another problem:
"The deteriorating violence in Afghanistan does not primarily result from poverty, nor will economic incentives buy support for an opposed military presence or government. Following a long history of aid and military intervention, including during the Soviet occupation, Afghans are familiar with and suspicious of 'hearts and minds' strategies. Furthermore, aid represents a small component of most Afghans' coping strategies in times of conflict and transition. Predominant strategies include communal cooperation on rehabilitation and remittances. Interviewees in Paktia and Uruzgan repeatedly argued that security would be more fundamentally linked to improved governance and the removal of unsavory characters from positions of power."
Such perspectives are all the more convincing coming from Afghans themselves, particularly in light of seven years of fitful progress at best. With the emphasis on aid, an effective Afghanistan strategy must:
1. Incorporate clarified and shared goals. As detailed in a recent policy paper from the Center for Strategic & International Studies, the people of Afghanistan – and Pakistan, for that matter – must believe their security and prosperity are the key concern of all aid and military efforts. To that end, the U.S., EU and NATO allies, along with the development community, must iterate a unified plan with achievable targets, and stick to it.
2. Involve less contracting and subcontracting, and greater oversight. Aid agencies and project implementers must take greater control and responsibility for their work – and be held accountable for it. Such adjustments will not be easy, but they are necessary if aid agencies and NGOs are to ultimately succeed in building a more stable society.
3. Focus on governance and local democracy promotion in a few key provinces. Nothing is holding back progress in Afghanistan as much as a lack of national, regional and civic leadership. Civil society organizations, democracy promotion and community involvement need to be cornerstones of regional development strategies in Helmand, Uruzgan and along the border with Pakistan, from provincial to village levels. An underlying cause of Taliban resurgence, for example, is the drug trade, which remains successful mainly because governors and other officials are given near impunity to oversee poppy farming and opium smuggling. Efforts are being made to cut back production and improve security, but aid projects need to work the other end – removing corrupt warlords and putting legitimate, democratically-elected leaders in place.
A majority of Americans still support a renewed effort to salvage Afghanistan, but U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke predicted "a long, difficult struggle" that will be "much tougher than Iraq." It could be considerably longer and more difficult if the international community fails to implement the security and economic development projects that can provide a foundation for stable democratic institutions.
--
Posted to Devex.com on February 27, 2009
China, Poverty and the UN’s Curious Stance on Human Rights
The United Nations' Human Rights Council kicked off a special session to discuss the impact of the financial crisis on the poor Friday. That same day, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in China, which recently received a rather friendly review from the world's leading rights body.
Why is the HRC addressing the concerns of the poor when it apparently fails to handle its own purview?
The council replaced the beleaguered Commission on Human Rights nearly three years ago. After its most recent 16-country review, the HRC has now reviewed one-third of the U.N.'s 192 member states. Among those reviews, that of China stands out.
Amnesty International has called China the "world's leading executioner," and the authoritarian government is known for jailing its citizens without trial, censoring its people and harshly quelling rebellious sentiment in Tibet and among the Muslim Uighurs.
Yet during the review, many developing countries commended China as an example of progress and criticized Western countries for "politicizing" the issues. Egypt lauded the Hu Jintao regime and Iran championed Beijing's "strong commitment to human rights." Cuba urged China to remain firm against "self-styled human rights defenders." Gabon, Sudan and Zimbabwe praised China for giving them financial aid, and failed to mention human rights.
"What we saw during the China review was a wide range of views expressed on several human rights issues - economic, social and cultural rights and civil and political rights," Ihoeghian Uhomoibhi, Nigerian ambassador to the U.N. and current president of the HRC, told Devex. "This is significant!"
Like the HRC, Hilary Clinton pushed human rights to the sidelines during her visit to Beijing over the weekend, saying human rights issues "should not be allowed to interfere" with common interests. She could have capitalized on the buzz surrounding "Charter 08," an online petition denouncing the Chinese government for its human rights abuses that has been signed by more than 8,000 Chinese citizens. But Clinton instead focused on climate change and financial crisis cooperation.
Perhaps it's understandable for the U.S. secretary of state to go soft on China - she has a relationship to manage. The HRC, on the other hand, has a job to do. Despite human rights abuses all around, the council issued a draft resolution Monday calling on nations to protect those put most at risk during the ongoing financial downturn.
"The hope of this session is to send out a strong message that human rights should not be overlooked or drowned out by the current financial crisis," said Uhomoibhi. "The international community must take into account the human rights dimension of the economic crises when implementing measures to address its effects."
Coming two days after the Hu Jintao government gagged dozens of human rights advocates to keep them quiet during Clinton's visit, the real message is that human rights-abusing governments can act with impunity.
--
Posted to Devex.com on 23 February 2009
Why is the HRC addressing the concerns of the poor when it apparently fails to handle its own purview?
The council replaced the beleaguered Commission on Human Rights nearly three years ago. After its most recent 16-country review, the HRC has now reviewed one-third of the U.N.'s 192 member states. Among those reviews, that of China stands out.
Amnesty International has called China the "world's leading executioner," and the authoritarian government is known for jailing its citizens without trial, censoring its people and harshly quelling rebellious sentiment in Tibet and among the Muslim Uighurs.
Yet during the review, many developing countries commended China as an example of progress and criticized Western countries for "politicizing" the issues. Egypt lauded the Hu Jintao regime and Iran championed Beijing's "strong commitment to human rights." Cuba urged China to remain firm against "self-styled human rights defenders." Gabon, Sudan and Zimbabwe praised China for giving them financial aid, and failed to mention human rights.
"What we saw during the China review was a wide range of views expressed on several human rights issues - economic, social and cultural rights and civil and political rights," Ihoeghian Uhomoibhi, Nigerian ambassador to the U.N. and current president of the HRC, told Devex. "This is significant!"
Like the HRC, Hilary Clinton pushed human rights to the sidelines during her visit to Beijing over the weekend, saying human rights issues "should not be allowed to interfere" with common interests. She could have capitalized on the buzz surrounding "Charter 08," an online petition denouncing the Chinese government for its human rights abuses that has been signed by more than 8,000 Chinese citizens. But Clinton instead focused on climate change and financial crisis cooperation.
Perhaps it's understandable for the U.S. secretary of state to go soft on China - she has a relationship to manage. The HRC, on the other hand, has a job to do. Despite human rights abuses all around, the council issued a draft resolution Monday calling on nations to protect those put most at risk during the ongoing financial downturn.
"The hope of this session is to send out a strong message that human rights should not be overlooked or drowned out by the current financial crisis," said Uhomoibhi. "The international community must take into account the human rights dimension of the economic crises when implementing measures to address its effects."
Coming two days after the Hu Jintao government gagged dozens of human rights advocates to keep them quiet during Clinton's visit, the real message is that human rights-abusing governments can act with impunity.
--
Posted to Devex.com on 23 February 2009
Downturn Likely to Smack the Developing World
While the developed world hustles to minimize the damage from the deepening economic crisis, developing countries have been mostly ignored. Yet it is precisely those poorer countries – and their hundreds of millions of people living on the knife edge of desperation – that will be most at risk in the coming weeks and months.
As the downturn leans into its second year, the international community is finally taking note. Earlier this week, the United Nations Human Rights Council urged developed nations to protect those most at risk during this crisis. Its draft solution may not solve the problem, but it's certain to draw attention to a very real concern.
The next day, Columbia University economics professor Joseph Stiglitz spoke about the impact of the financial crisis on global development as part of the United Nations University's speaker series.
"The problems are far deeper, surely, than we've seen so far," said Stiglitz, former chief economist at the World Bank. "The financial crisis is symptomatic of a deeper macro-economic crisis."
The Nobel laureate highlighted the need to fix the underlying problems or face more debilitating hurdles internationally.
"While the financial crisis began in the US, it's now reverberating around the world, including developing countries," said Stiglitz. These countries don't have the funds to enact stimulus policies like those of the West.
"If we don't give them the resources, they won't be able to stimulate their economy and global imbalances will be exacerbated," Stiglitz explained. On the other hand, "Europe and Japan have offered substantial increased funds to the IMF, but if those loans to developing countries are marred by the policies of the past, it will be counter-productive."
Stiglitz went one step further.
"I think we're going to come to a realization that the institutions that we created 60 years ago are not up to the task," he said, before proposing a new, more open-minded international credit facility as part of a "new global architecture."
In a recent interview with Devex, author of best-seller "The White Man's Burden" and New York University economics professor William Easterly acknowledged that the financial crisis would slow developing country growth yet thought it might provide an opportunity.
"How do we make aid even more effective to cope with this additional suffering?" wondered Easterly. "All those people who were spending all their energies campaigning for more aid money, well, maybe they should join those of us who've been campaigning for more results out of the same amount of money."
Posted to Devex.com on 26 February 2009
As the downturn leans into its second year, the international community is finally taking note. Earlier this week, the United Nations Human Rights Council urged developed nations to protect those most at risk during this crisis. Its draft solution may not solve the problem, but it's certain to draw attention to a very real concern.
The next day, Columbia University economics professor Joseph Stiglitz spoke about the impact of the financial crisis on global development as part of the United Nations University's speaker series.
"The problems are far deeper, surely, than we've seen so far," said Stiglitz, former chief economist at the World Bank. "The financial crisis is symptomatic of a deeper macro-economic crisis."
The Nobel laureate highlighted the need to fix the underlying problems or face more debilitating hurdles internationally.
"While the financial crisis began in the US, it's now reverberating around the world, including developing countries," said Stiglitz. These countries don't have the funds to enact stimulus policies like those of the West.
"If we don't give them the resources, they won't be able to stimulate their economy and global imbalances will be exacerbated," Stiglitz explained. On the other hand, "Europe and Japan have offered substantial increased funds to the IMF, but if those loans to developing countries are marred by the policies of the past, it will be counter-productive."
Stiglitz went one step further.
"I think we're going to come to a realization that the institutions that we created 60 years ago are not up to the task," he said, before proposing a new, more open-minded international credit facility as part of a "new global architecture."
In a recent interview with Devex, author of best-seller "The White Man's Burden" and New York University economics professor William Easterly acknowledged that the financial crisis would slow developing country growth yet thought it might provide an opportunity.
"How do we make aid even more effective to cope with this additional suffering?" wondered Easterly. "All those people who were spending all their energies campaigning for more aid money, well, maybe they should join those of us who've been campaigning for more results out of the same amount of money."
Posted to Devex.com on 26 February 2009
12.22.2008
India and the world need Kashmir resolved
SRINAGAR, India // Writing last week in a popular Indian newsweekly, Michael Scheuer, a former CIA counter-terrorism chief, warned India against “doing an America” following the Mumbai attack. He advised New Delhi to be firm with Pakistan, take responsibility and turn northwards.
“The Kashmir issue clearly incites Pakistani and Indian Islamists, as well as those associated with or inspired by al Qa’eda,” Mr Scheuer wrote. “Whether those Islamists are right or wrong is irrelevant. India’s positions on and actions in Kashmir motivates them.”
Since its disputed accession to India in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three wars over this predominantly Muslim region of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. A bloody insurgency against Indian rule began in 1989, leading to more than 60,000 dead yet little progress regarding the territorial tug-of-war.
After the Mumbai attacks, analysts and observers from Washington to Waziristan have suggested ways to cut the Gordian knot that both binds and repels India and Pakistan. Lashkar-i-Taiba, a Pakistan-based terrorist group and the prime suspect in the Mumbai attacks, sprung from the Kashmir dispute, along with about a dozen militant groups – a handful of which the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies have armed as part of a death-by-a-thousand-cuts policy against India.
Some advisers to US president-elect Barack Obama argue that solving Kashmir will help solve Pakistani terrorism. Others warn against such simplistic reasoning. But Mr Scheuer distills the point down to its essence: India’s stance in Kashmir incites Islamist terrorists. Their al Qa’eda-style insurrection threatens to rock the foundations of the Indian state, to topple Pakistan and Afghanistan and endanger western targets as well.
If the world’s terrorism nexus is Pakistan, its roots lie in this lush, war-torn Himalayan valley, which may be more ripe for resolution than at any moment in recent memory. Violence has plummeted, dropping steadily every year since 2001. Although still only a trickle, travel and trade between the two sides of Kashmir – Indian and Pakistani – have further reduced tensions. And last summer, mass pro-freedom marches outlined a new movement of Gandhian non-violence, less hard line and perhaps open to dialogue.
Finally, over the past month Kashmiris have turned out impressively for state assembly elections – double, even triple the 2002 turnout in some districts – suggesting that many have moved beyond their tired separatist leadership and are amenable to a lesser, more India-friendly form of freedom.
Further afield the outlook is also bright. Both houses of the US Congress passed resolutions urging Pakistan to root out extremist groups and prevent its territory from being used to launch attacks. The UN Security Council has banned the Lashkar front, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, and is applying strong pressure on Pakistan to crack down on terrorism. And the incoming Obama administration has hinted at a regional approach to Afghanistan that will include resolving Kashmir as a crucial element of ensuring Pakistani military support.
India could use this domestic and international consensus as leverage to pressure Pakistan – not only to root out terrorism, but to hack at the roots of regional terrorism by moving towards a resolution on Kashmir. Yet presented with this golden opportunity, India has buried its head in the sand.
“The attack on Mumbai has nothing to do with India-Pakistan relations or with Kashmir,” the Indian foreign minister, Pranab Mukherjee, said at a press conference in Srinagar last week.
As the dispute’s more powerful party, India has long been satisfied with the status quo and has therefore seen little reason to allow international intervention or to negotiate openly with Pakistan. But after the devastating attack on Mumbai, the Indian state must realize that the Kashmir dispute is no longer a stable, self-serving stalemate but a malignant tumor. Both parties now have an urgent interest in finding a resolution; India and its people will gain security, as will Pakistan and the world beyond.
Led by Asif Ali Zardari, the president, Pakistan’s democratic government has acknowledged that the greatest threat to its integrity is not India but locally based, state-supported terrorism outfits. The jailing of dozens of alleged terrorists and a ban on Jamaat-ud-Dawa is a good start. But the real test will be the Pakistani military, which has controlled the levers of power and wielded terrorism as a proxy for decades. Its leadership may be getting the message as well.
“The civilian and military leadership has to do some serious introspection about the cost-benefit ratio of these outdated and failed policies,” Talat Masood, a retired lieutenant-general in the Pakistan army, wrote in the Daily Times last week.
“Has Pakistan come any closer to achieving its objectives in Jammu and Kashmir by supporting militancy and proxies?” he asked. “The best option for Pakistan is to strictly confine its support to the Kashmir cause to the political and diplomatic domain.”
Kashmiris widely cheered the election of Mr Obama as the next US president, perhaps with good reason. At the urging of advisers like Mr Scheuer and a soon-to-be-published report from Gen David Petreaus, the architect of the Iraqi surge now overseeing the war in Afghanistan, the Obama administration is likely to prod India and Pakistan to come to the negotiating table on Kashmir – with or without international assistance. Considering the grave threat exposed by the Mumbai attack and the golden opportunity before it, New Delhi would be wise to heed the call.
-- published Dec 21 in The National, www.thenational.ae.
“The Kashmir issue clearly incites Pakistani and Indian Islamists, as well as those associated with or inspired by al Qa’eda,” Mr Scheuer wrote. “Whether those Islamists are right or wrong is irrelevant. India’s positions on and actions in Kashmir motivates them.”
Since its disputed accession to India in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three wars over this predominantly Muslim region of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. A bloody insurgency against Indian rule began in 1989, leading to more than 60,000 dead yet little progress regarding the territorial tug-of-war.
After the Mumbai attacks, analysts and observers from Washington to Waziristan have suggested ways to cut the Gordian knot that both binds and repels India and Pakistan. Lashkar-i-Taiba, a Pakistan-based terrorist group and the prime suspect in the Mumbai attacks, sprung from the Kashmir dispute, along with about a dozen militant groups – a handful of which the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies have armed as part of a death-by-a-thousand-cuts policy against India.
Some advisers to US president-elect Barack Obama argue that solving Kashmir will help solve Pakistani terrorism. Others warn against such simplistic reasoning. But Mr Scheuer distills the point down to its essence: India’s stance in Kashmir incites Islamist terrorists. Their al Qa’eda-style insurrection threatens to rock the foundations of the Indian state, to topple Pakistan and Afghanistan and endanger western targets as well.
If the world’s terrorism nexus is Pakistan, its roots lie in this lush, war-torn Himalayan valley, which may be more ripe for resolution than at any moment in recent memory. Violence has plummeted, dropping steadily every year since 2001. Although still only a trickle, travel and trade between the two sides of Kashmir – Indian and Pakistani – have further reduced tensions. And last summer, mass pro-freedom marches outlined a new movement of Gandhian non-violence, less hard line and perhaps open to dialogue.
Finally, over the past month Kashmiris have turned out impressively for state assembly elections – double, even triple the 2002 turnout in some districts – suggesting that many have moved beyond their tired separatist leadership and are amenable to a lesser, more India-friendly form of freedom.
Further afield the outlook is also bright. Both houses of the US Congress passed resolutions urging Pakistan to root out extremist groups and prevent its territory from being used to launch attacks. The UN Security Council has banned the Lashkar front, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, and is applying strong pressure on Pakistan to crack down on terrorism. And the incoming Obama administration has hinted at a regional approach to Afghanistan that will include resolving Kashmir as a crucial element of ensuring Pakistani military support.
India could use this domestic and international consensus as leverage to pressure Pakistan – not only to root out terrorism, but to hack at the roots of regional terrorism by moving towards a resolution on Kashmir. Yet presented with this golden opportunity, India has buried its head in the sand.
“The attack on Mumbai has nothing to do with India-Pakistan relations or with Kashmir,” the Indian foreign minister, Pranab Mukherjee, said at a press conference in Srinagar last week.
As the dispute’s more powerful party, India has long been satisfied with the status quo and has therefore seen little reason to allow international intervention or to negotiate openly with Pakistan. But after the devastating attack on Mumbai, the Indian state must realize that the Kashmir dispute is no longer a stable, self-serving stalemate but a malignant tumor. Both parties now have an urgent interest in finding a resolution; India and its people will gain security, as will Pakistan and the world beyond.
Led by Asif Ali Zardari, the president, Pakistan’s democratic government has acknowledged that the greatest threat to its integrity is not India but locally based, state-supported terrorism outfits. The jailing of dozens of alleged terrorists and a ban on Jamaat-ud-Dawa is a good start. But the real test will be the Pakistani military, which has controlled the levers of power and wielded terrorism as a proxy for decades. Its leadership may be getting the message as well.
“The civilian and military leadership has to do some serious introspection about the cost-benefit ratio of these outdated and failed policies,” Talat Masood, a retired lieutenant-general in the Pakistan army, wrote in the Daily Times last week.
“Has Pakistan come any closer to achieving its objectives in Jammu and Kashmir by supporting militancy and proxies?” he asked. “The best option for Pakistan is to strictly confine its support to the Kashmir cause to the political and diplomatic domain.”
Kashmiris widely cheered the election of Mr Obama as the next US president, perhaps with good reason. At the urging of advisers like Mr Scheuer and a soon-to-be-published report from Gen David Petreaus, the architect of the Iraqi surge now overseeing the war in Afghanistan, the Obama administration is likely to prod India and Pakistan to come to the negotiating table on Kashmir – with or without international assistance. Considering the grave threat exposed by the Mumbai attack and the golden opportunity before it, New Delhi would be wise to heed the call.
-- published Dec 21 in The National, www.thenational.ae.
12.20.2008
Kashmiris Hope for Christmas Poll Gift
Srinigar // Waiting for Santa Claus will be particularly excruciating for Kashmiris this year.
After Wednesday’s vote, Kashmir has gone to the polls six times since mid-November, and six times they have turned out impressively. The seventh and final vote – on Christmas Eve here in the state’s winter capital – will put a new state government in place, bring an unsettled populace into focus and perhaps put an end to a virulent yet non-violent pro-freedom movement that seemed to trouble New Delhi more than militancy.
Since a bloody insurgency against Indian rule began in 1989, more than 60,000 have died in this landlocked and predominantly Muslim region of Jammu and Kashmir state. Violence has slowed in recent years as more than half a million Indian troops have imposed New Delhi’s will.
Yet when blockaded roads threatened local traders during a land row late last summer, hundreds of thousands of Kashmiris thronged the streets in a furious mass catharsis – releasing almost two decades of frustration and rage with chanting, dancing and the crying of pro-freedom slogans.
The central government banned the marches, beefed up security and called for snap elections. Although separatists say voting strengthens New Delhi’s hand, turnout in the early phases of polling hit nearly 70 per cent in some districts and has remained high despite daytime curfews, occasional police clashes and ubiquitous checkpoints on polling days.
The ground has shifted in Kashmir, but exactly how remains unclear.
“Everything has changed,” said Malik Sajad, 21, a student and political cartoonist for the valley’s leading daily newspaper. “That time you had people on the road. Now there are troops, and people are either inside or getting beat – I feel my childhood days are returned.”
Some of the 1990s danger has returned – security forces killed two commanders of militant group Hizb-ul-Mujihadeen in a shoot-out on Wednesday – even as voters went to the polls. In embracing Indian democracy and turning against what so many demanded so vocally so recently, have Kashmiris betrayed themselves?
“People going back and forth, protesting and voting, is not unprecedented in Kashmir,” said Zarief Ahmad Shah, a political analyst and retired government servant, citing historical antecedents in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.
Pointing to the continued presence of hundreds of thousands of Indian troops and the poor strategies of the separatist leaders, he said: “People are confused, not sure of what they want.”
Individuals seemed sure during Wednesday’s polling, as south Kashmir’s hilly Anantnag district saw 57 per cent turnout in a chilly drizzle. Kashmiris as a group, however, did not.
“We don’t have schools, good roads or a hospital, and there is unemployment,” said Khaleda Sheikh, a 37-year-old mother of two, while waiting to vote in the riverside village of Kashiteng Zarpara. “The government will help us.”
At a polling place a few kilometres away in the village of Kanalwan, a group of men had another perspective.
“We are voting so that they solve the Kashmir issue,” 58-year-old farmer Haji Mohammed Abdullah Shah said to murmurs of approval. “All this other stuff – roads, education, jobs – that’s nothing. This is about solving Kashmir.”
Queueing to vote nearby, Ghulam Nabi Karchoo explained. “There are several types of azaadi,” said the 45-year-old father of four, using the local word for independence. “There’s complete independence, but there’s also the ability to move freely, to cross borders and not deal with so much security.”
Others believe the quest for azaadi must remain pure. Outside a polling station in Anantnag, the district capital, several dozen men gathered to protest the elections.
“People in the government are puppets, and the strings are in Delhi,” said Mohammed Asim, 26, a computer engineer sporting sunglasses, a long beard and a black, leather jacket. He was surrounded by a group of agitated men. Some had voted, but they broke into anti-India chants at the slightest urging.
“These people who are voting – they don’t realise what they are doing,” said Mr Asim, a supporter of hard-line separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani. “Voting gives India the power to say we are with them.”
The accuracy of that stance will be tested with the final vote in Srinagar, which represents a fifth of the valley’s five million population. Mirwaiz Omar Farooq, a key separatist politician and religious leader, has called for a boycott and pro-freedom march.
Shops will be shut, streets will be silent and security forces will patrol the city. Turn out is expected to be low, between 15 per cent and 30 per cent.
“The results of these elections don’t mean anything,” said Mr. Shah, the political analyst. Their apparent success, however, “is a big blow for separatists”, he said.
“If people lose heart, India has won.”
The city’s urbane youth are aware of greater international scrutiny post-Mumbai; familiar with popular YouTube videos such as “Bleeding India”, which depicts the deaths of several young Kashmiris at the hands of security forces; and frustrated by restrictive government dictates, such as a ban on text messaging, ongoing since July.
They were also at the head of the nonviolent campaign for self-determination this year.
“I don’t think I will vote because there is nobody who can represent us,” said Mr Sajad, the cartoonist. “I don’t think the protests are over. They will be over only when the government starts listening.”
For many, such meaningful dialogue is a long way off.
“The protests sent the message that we will accept nothing less than independence,” said Mr Asim, the Anantnag computer engineer.
“Are we willing to embrace violence again? We don’t want to, but if that’s the only way.”
Mr Asim raised his eyebrows. The men around him began nodding their heads.
-- published in The National, www.thenational.ae, on Dec 19.
After Wednesday’s vote, Kashmir has gone to the polls six times since mid-November, and six times they have turned out impressively. The seventh and final vote – on Christmas Eve here in the state’s winter capital – will put a new state government in place, bring an unsettled populace into focus and perhaps put an end to a virulent yet non-violent pro-freedom movement that seemed to trouble New Delhi more than militancy.
Since a bloody insurgency against Indian rule began in 1989, more than 60,000 have died in this landlocked and predominantly Muslim region of Jammu and Kashmir state. Violence has slowed in recent years as more than half a million Indian troops have imposed New Delhi’s will.
Yet when blockaded roads threatened local traders during a land row late last summer, hundreds of thousands of Kashmiris thronged the streets in a furious mass catharsis – releasing almost two decades of frustration and rage with chanting, dancing and the crying of pro-freedom slogans.
The central government banned the marches, beefed up security and called for snap elections. Although separatists say voting strengthens New Delhi’s hand, turnout in the early phases of polling hit nearly 70 per cent in some districts and has remained high despite daytime curfews, occasional police clashes and ubiquitous checkpoints on polling days.
The ground has shifted in Kashmir, but exactly how remains unclear.
“Everything has changed,” said Malik Sajad, 21, a student and political cartoonist for the valley’s leading daily newspaper. “That time you had people on the road. Now there are troops, and people are either inside or getting beat – I feel my childhood days are returned.”
Some of the 1990s danger has returned – security forces killed two commanders of militant group Hizb-ul-Mujihadeen in a shoot-out on Wednesday – even as voters went to the polls. In embracing Indian democracy and turning against what so many demanded so vocally so recently, have Kashmiris betrayed themselves?
“People going back and forth, protesting and voting, is not unprecedented in Kashmir,” said Zarief Ahmad Shah, a political analyst and retired government servant, citing historical antecedents in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.
Pointing to the continued presence of hundreds of thousands of Indian troops and the poor strategies of the separatist leaders, he said: “People are confused, not sure of what they want.”
Individuals seemed sure during Wednesday’s polling, as south Kashmir’s hilly Anantnag district saw 57 per cent turnout in a chilly drizzle. Kashmiris as a group, however, did not.
“We don’t have schools, good roads or a hospital, and there is unemployment,” said Khaleda Sheikh, a 37-year-old mother of two, while waiting to vote in the riverside village of Kashiteng Zarpara. “The government will help us.”
At a polling place a few kilometres away in the village of Kanalwan, a group of men had another perspective.
“We are voting so that they solve the Kashmir issue,” 58-year-old farmer Haji Mohammed Abdullah Shah said to murmurs of approval. “All this other stuff – roads, education, jobs – that’s nothing. This is about solving Kashmir.”
Queueing to vote nearby, Ghulam Nabi Karchoo explained. “There are several types of azaadi,” said the 45-year-old father of four, using the local word for independence. “There’s complete independence, but there’s also the ability to move freely, to cross borders and not deal with so much security.”
Others believe the quest for azaadi must remain pure. Outside a polling station in Anantnag, the district capital, several dozen men gathered to protest the elections.
“People in the government are puppets, and the strings are in Delhi,” said Mohammed Asim, 26, a computer engineer sporting sunglasses, a long beard and a black, leather jacket. He was surrounded by a group of agitated men. Some had voted, but they broke into anti-India chants at the slightest urging.
“These people who are voting – they don’t realise what they are doing,” said Mr Asim, a supporter of hard-line separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani. “Voting gives India the power to say we are with them.”
The accuracy of that stance will be tested with the final vote in Srinagar, which represents a fifth of the valley’s five million population. Mirwaiz Omar Farooq, a key separatist politician and religious leader, has called for a boycott and pro-freedom march.
Shops will be shut, streets will be silent and security forces will patrol the city. Turn out is expected to be low, between 15 per cent and 30 per cent.
“The results of these elections don’t mean anything,” said Mr. Shah, the political analyst. Their apparent success, however, “is a big blow for separatists”, he said.
“If people lose heart, India has won.”
The city’s urbane youth are aware of greater international scrutiny post-Mumbai; familiar with popular YouTube videos such as “Bleeding India”, which depicts the deaths of several young Kashmiris at the hands of security forces; and frustrated by restrictive government dictates, such as a ban on text messaging, ongoing since July.
They were also at the head of the nonviolent campaign for self-determination this year.
“I don’t think I will vote because there is nobody who can represent us,” said Mr Sajad, the cartoonist. “I don’t think the protests are over. They will be over only when the government starts listening.”
For many, such meaningful dialogue is a long way off.
“The protests sent the message that we will accept nothing less than independence,” said Mr Asim, the Anantnag computer engineer.
“Are we willing to embrace violence again? We don’t want to, but if that’s the only way.”
Mr Asim raised his eyebrows. The men around him began nodding their heads.
-- published in The National, www.thenational.ae, on Dec 19.
Ideals collide in Kashmiri elections
Patelbagh, India // Asadullah Bhat is no stranger to polls, but he is not sure why he keeps coming back.
“My wishes have not been met, change has not taken place,” the 45-year-old paddy farmer said while waiting to vote for the seventh time in 25 years, all in this village a few dozen kilometres south-west of Srinagar. “But we have to vote because the government will be formed either way – so I keep hoping.”
Voters in parts of Kashmir went to the polls amid heavy security on Saturday in the fifth phase of staggered elections to choose the Jammu and Kashmir state assembly. Protests and deadly violence flared and accusations of vote-rigging flew as the people of this war-torn Himalayan valley continued their conflicted duet with Indian democracy.
The predominantly Muslim region has been gripped by conflict since 1989 when separatists took up the gun against India. About 60,000 have died and although violence has slowed in recent years, separatists see elections as a show of fealty towards New Delhi.
Yet turnout in the early phases of polling had reached nearly 70 per cent in some districts. Though numbers have begun to droop as voting moves into less India-friendly regions, Saturday’s results – nearly 50 per cent turnout in two Kashmir districts – represent significant increases from the previous elections in 2002.
Observers see an emerging line of thinking that separates independence from day-to-day governance.
“Why not delink voting from azaadi?” said Shabir Hussain, editor and publisher of a local daily, Kashmir Newsline, using the Urdu word for independence. “Unless we make ourselves a party to these elections, India will continue to thrust jokers and tricksters upon us. We have to consider what kind of damage we are doing to ourselves.”
That damage has been visible throughout the elections — in beefed up security across the valley, in empty streets every Friday and every polling day as bands of Indian troops enforce daytime curfews and in violent flashes from police, who beat up a handful of journalists attempting to cover an anti-election rally on the previous day of polling, Dec 7.
Kashmir election days rarely pass without trouble. On Saturday an early morning protest in Koil village escalated to stone throwing, prodding security forces to open fire – killing a 21-year-old student and injuring two others.
Yet thousands of Kashmiris stood in slow moving lines under cloudy skies to make their mark. Their differing voices revealed the complexity of Kashmir.
Saba Settar, 18, was idealistic about her first vote. “I hope I can choose a candidate who will solve our problems,” said the Pampore resident.
Ms Settar placed education before independence, saying “of first importance is our future”.
Naseer Ahmad, 22, a university student, participated in the mass anti-India protests this year but saw no contradiction in voting.
“I support independence first, but I also vote,” he said, queuing up with friends in Pampore. “We can’t let Jammu get all the government attention.”
In Patelbagh village, Abdul Rahim Yattoo, 70, a farmer, seemed to contradict himself.
“I don’t want all our men that have been killed in the last 20 years to have died in vain, so I want azaadi,” he said. “But I’m happy with India, so I’m voting.”
In traditionally separatist Shopian and Tral, locals are less happy. Several dozen young men chant anti-India slogans outside a Shopian town polling place. Inside, a Congress party poll minder was roughly ejected after accusing an opponent of helping burqa-wearing women to vote twice.
In the village of Nikas, near Shopian, villagers said soldiers had come the previous night and urged them to visit the polls. By noon Saturday voting stood at 12 per cent.
“This is democracy, we have the right to boycott,” said Arshad Hussain, a Nikas resident who did not vote. The 28-year-old is unemployed despite a master’s degree in history from Kashmir University. “India is taking only our blood, not giving anything in return.”
Yesterday, Manmohan Singh, the Indian prime minister, spoke of giving back at a Congress party campaign rally near Shangas, in Anantnag district, which will vote on Wednesday. He announced a reconstruction programme of 26 billion Indian rupees (Dh1.97bn), along with planned power projects, roads and colleges.
“Autonomy and self-rule is also possible if the Congress is brought back to power,” he told a crowd of less than 1,000 supporters. Mr Singh congratulated Kashmir for its participation in the elections, saying “this proves that you have full faith in democracy”.
Mr Hussain, the Nikas resident, foresaw a dark future. “People are not joining together, taking one line,” he said. “Sometime they are with India, sometime azaadi.”
Mr Bhat, the Patelbagh paddy farmer, may have hit on why.
“The mainstream politicians cheat people and among the separatists there are no good leaders,” he said. “[Politicians’] children are studying in another country, in the US, but look at ours — they have no education, no future. What kind of leadership is that?”
-- published in The National, www.thenational.ae, on Dec 15.
12.07.2008
Political revamp far off despite bloodshed
They could not even let the blood dry.
Indian officials’ post-Mumbai opportunism and finger-pointing began while lives remained in danger, and has continued long after. They have bickered, bumbled and placed blame, but have done very little of what they are paid to do: lead.
As commandos prepared for a final assault on the Oberoi Hotel, Narendra Modi, who is the Gujarat chief minister and a divisive, charismatic national figure for the opposition BJP, offered 10 million rupees compensation to the family of the Mumbai antiterror squad leader Hemant Karkare, who was killed in the attack. The family rejected the offer, perhaps because the previous week Mr Modi had verbally abused Karkare’s squad for implicating Hindu nationalists in a previous bomb attack.
That same day, the BJP ran a political advertisement on the front page of the Hindustan Times (national parliamentary elections are scheduled for early next year). Immediately below an editorial calling for political unity, the blood-splattered ad blamed the “brutal terrorist attacks” on a “weak and incapable government."
Hours after terrorists were finally evicted from the rooms of the Taj Mahal Palace hotel, Vilasrao Deshmukh, the chief minister of Maharashtra, of which Mumbai is the capital, took a celebrity film director on an official visit to the hotel. “Many people come to such places,” he said. Such nonchalance apparently trickles down. Of the assault, Mr Deshmukh’s deputy, R R Patil, said, “small incidents like this do happen in big cities”.
But the impropriety may have peaked with V S Achuthananthan, the chief minister of Kerala, who was turned away when he tried to offer condolences at the home of a commando killed in the attack. “Had it not been a martyr’s house,” he said later, “not even a dog would have gone there.”
For Ramachandra Guha, historian and author of India After Gandhi, this has not been a proud moment for India. “There’s just no excuse for this shameful, vulgar behaviour,” he said.
“It’s a consequence of the weakness and shortsightedness of Indian politicians. There’s also a larger systemic cause, this fragmented polity, wherein every coalition is extremely vulnerable and looking at short-term survival as opposed to the efficacy of security, education, health policy or anything else.”
Indeed, the leadership in New Delhi has fared little better. The Mumbai reaction speech by Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, conveyed neither confidence nor conviction. And after the resignation of Shivraj Patil, the home minister, who as terror attacks piled up in recent months looked more and more like a deer in headlights, P Chidambaram, the finance minister, stepped into the post.
Mr Singh, an economist himself, temporarily assumed the finance portfolio – leaving India without a full-time finance minister during the 21st century’s first global financial crisis.
Combined with the jaw-dropping security and intelligence failures that led to the assault, the inability of any public leader to adequately frame the nation’s roiling mix of anger, fear, outrage and sorrow has revealed the fragility of the Indian state. Urban, informed Indians have responded to the leadership vacuum with a groundswell of venom.
In thousands of online forums and viral text messages, young Indians are denouncing their opportunistic, deceitful and inept politicians. An angry, anti-politician demonstration outside the Taj hotel attracted nearly 20,000 Mumbaikars on Wednesday – a huge number for the normally laissez-faire metropolis.
Leading columnists, well-known authors and Bollywood stars are prodding Indians to be accountable and ask the same of their leaders. Others have urged people to refrain from voting or to stop paying taxes. Perversely, the anger seems directed more towards politicians than terrorists. Perhaps because the Mumbai assault targeted not just foreigners but the Indian upper class, who were suddenly moved to act.
“All the horror and outrage is because it’s the Taj, a symbol of aspiration for a very long time,” Mr Guha said. India’s poor suffer similar upheavals practically every day.
The death toll from a cyclone that hit the Tamil Nadu coast on the first full day terror gripped Mumbai, for instance, has passed 180 – making it more deadly than the terror attack. The storm has also displaced nearly 2.5 million, yet elicited barely a whimper from either the media or the newly activist urbanites.
So will this vague, narrow-minded rage result in a political reckoning? Some early signs are encouraging.
Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir have each held state elections since the Mumbai assault, and all recorded higher than average voter turnout.
The Association for Democratic Reforms, a network of 1,200 democracy advocate organisations across the country, is pushing to include a “none of the above” option on ballots and pressing for the right to recall candidates.
Yet if crying for change is no silver bullet, neither is removing politicians, as it is impossible to ensure the rise of effective successors. For now, the focus should be on improving security, and the creation of a central intelligence agency for terrorism based on the model of the US Department of Homeland Security is a good first step.
The next is depoliticising a hoary security system in which senior appointments are made by politicians. “In that kind of situation, where the security apparatus is always looking to please political masters, you cannot have efficient functioning,” Mr Guha said.
Grossly incompetent intelligence and security institutions; flailing, venal, and morally questionable leadership; and a populace separated by yawning divisions of income and geography: is India the world’s largest democracy or its biggest banana republic?
“Because India is so diverse and complicated it will always be vulnerable to conflict and attacks of this kind,” Mr Guha said. “This will not lead to the collapse of Indian democracy. We will stumble along, hopefully we will learn something and move on.”
--- ran in The National, www.thenational.ae, on Dec 7.
Indian officials’ post-Mumbai opportunism and finger-pointing began while lives remained in danger, and has continued long after. They have bickered, bumbled and placed blame, but have done very little of what they are paid to do: lead.
As commandos prepared for a final assault on the Oberoi Hotel, Narendra Modi, who is the Gujarat chief minister and a divisive, charismatic national figure for the opposition BJP, offered 10 million rupees compensation to the family of the Mumbai antiterror squad leader Hemant Karkare, who was killed in the attack. The family rejected the offer, perhaps because the previous week Mr Modi had verbally abused Karkare’s squad for implicating Hindu nationalists in a previous bomb attack.
That same day, the BJP ran a political advertisement on the front page of the Hindustan Times (national parliamentary elections are scheduled for early next year). Immediately below an editorial calling for political unity, the blood-splattered ad blamed the “brutal terrorist attacks” on a “weak and incapable government."
Hours after terrorists were finally evicted from the rooms of the Taj Mahal Palace hotel, Vilasrao Deshmukh, the chief minister of Maharashtra, of which Mumbai is the capital, took a celebrity film director on an official visit to the hotel. “Many people come to such places,” he said. Such nonchalance apparently trickles down. Of the assault, Mr Deshmukh’s deputy, R R Patil, said, “small incidents like this do happen in big cities”.
But the impropriety may have peaked with V S Achuthananthan, the chief minister of Kerala, who was turned away when he tried to offer condolences at the home of a commando killed in the attack. “Had it not been a martyr’s house,” he said later, “not even a dog would have gone there.”
For Ramachandra Guha, historian and author of India After Gandhi, this has not been a proud moment for India. “There’s just no excuse for this shameful, vulgar behaviour,” he said.
“It’s a consequence of the weakness and shortsightedness of Indian politicians. There’s also a larger systemic cause, this fragmented polity, wherein every coalition is extremely vulnerable and looking at short-term survival as opposed to the efficacy of security, education, health policy or anything else.”
Indeed, the leadership in New Delhi has fared little better. The Mumbai reaction speech by Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, conveyed neither confidence nor conviction. And after the resignation of Shivraj Patil, the home minister, who as terror attacks piled up in recent months looked more and more like a deer in headlights, P Chidambaram, the finance minister, stepped into the post.
Mr Singh, an economist himself, temporarily assumed the finance portfolio – leaving India without a full-time finance minister during the 21st century’s first global financial crisis.
Combined with the jaw-dropping security and intelligence failures that led to the assault, the inability of any public leader to adequately frame the nation’s roiling mix of anger, fear, outrage and sorrow has revealed the fragility of the Indian state. Urban, informed Indians have responded to the leadership vacuum with a groundswell of venom.
In thousands of online forums and viral text messages, young Indians are denouncing their opportunistic, deceitful and inept politicians. An angry, anti-politician demonstration outside the Taj hotel attracted nearly 20,000 Mumbaikars on Wednesday – a huge number for the normally laissez-faire metropolis.
Leading columnists, well-known authors and Bollywood stars are prodding Indians to be accountable and ask the same of their leaders. Others have urged people to refrain from voting or to stop paying taxes. Perversely, the anger seems directed more towards politicians than terrorists. Perhaps because the Mumbai assault targeted not just foreigners but the Indian upper class, who were suddenly moved to act.
“All the horror and outrage is because it’s the Taj, a symbol of aspiration for a very long time,” Mr Guha said. India’s poor suffer similar upheavals practically every day.
The death toll from a cyclone that hit the Tamil Nadu coast on the first full day terror gripped Mumbai, for instance, has passed 180 – making it more deadly than the terror attack. The storm has also displaced nearly 2.5 million, yet elicited barely a whimper from either the media or the newly activist urbanites.
So will this vague, narrow-minded rage result in a political reckoning? Some early signs are encouraging.
Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir have each held state elections since the Mumbai assault, and all recorded higher than average voter turnout.
The Association for Democratic Reforms, a network of 1,200 democracy advocate organisations across the country, is pushing to include a “none of the above” option on ballots and pressing for the right to recall candidates.
Yet if crying for change is no silver bullet, neither is removing politicians, as it is impossible to ensure the rise of effective successors. For now, the focus should be on improving security, and the creation of a central intelligence agency for terrorism based on the model of the US Department of Homeland Security is a good first step.
The next is depoliticising a hoary security system in which senior appointments are made by politicians. “In that kind of situation, where the security apparatus is always looking to please political masters, you cannot have efficient functioning,” Mr Guha said.
Grossly incompetent intelligence and security institutions; flailing, venal, and morally questionable leadership; and a populace separated by yawning divisions of income and geography: is India the world’s largest democracy or its biggest banana republic?
“Because India is so diverse and complicated it will always be vulnerable to conflict and attacks of this kind,” Mr Guha said. “This will not lead to the collapse of Indian democracy. We will stumble along, hopefully we will learn something and move on.”
--- ran in The National, www.thenational.ae, on Dec 7.
12.03.2008
'It's an Attack on Everything'
As the most audacious terrorist attack in Indian history wound down, David Lepeska, Foreign Correspondent, met with Ajai Sahni, executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management, a New Delhi-based think tank that studies regional terrorism and insurgency. Mr Sahni is also the executive editor of Faultlines, an Indian quarterly, and writes frequently about South Asian conflict and Indian security dilemmas. In his offices not far from the seat of Indian power, Mr Sahni spoke about the implications of the Mumbai assault, the suspected involvement of Pakistan and the outlook for counter-terrorism in India.
Q: Many are calling this India’s September 11. Your thoughts?
A: The entire approach to terrorism in India is sensationalist and tragically transient. Somebody called Mumbai the “soul of India”. Then I would like to say that the soul of India has been attacked again and again and again. What’s the big deal? We did nothing last time. The attacks in 1993 and 2006 both had greater numbers killed. Why does this become September 11? I don’t see that.
This was a meticulously planned operation involving dozens of operatives and lengthy planning – and it came two months after a known terrorist group warned authorities of an attack on Mumbai. Yet Indian intelligence found no clues, no warning signs?
This is not at all surprising. We have no intelligence capacity. Everybody believes the Intelligence Bureau is some million-armed octopus with a presence everywhere in this country. The reality of IB is that it has 3,500 intelligence gatherers across the country. The force dedicated to counter-terrorism is about 200 personnel – this in a country of 1.2 billion. Considering that, I am amazed we are not blown up more often.
Rate the security response to this attack.
I see exemplary courage, exemplary leadership and exemplary dedication to duty, in everybody who responded from the security forces. I see people who are given virtually nothing to fight with and putting everything they have into the fight, with many losing their lives.
And yet finally seven hours after the beginning of the incident the so-called elite counter-terrorism force arrives. That is an absolute structural failure. A terrorism operation can only be contained, in terms of its potential, in the first few minutes, which means the first respondents have to be equipped, trained and capable of if not neutralising than at least containing the terrorists. If the first batch of police had come and immediately engaged with the terrorist they probably would have been able in both of these hotels to isolate the terrorists in small corners of the hotel and minimise the damage.
Many are blaming the police for the extent of the damage and the protraction of the assault.
Look, we are among the most under-policed countries in the world. We have a primitive police force, an early 20th century force trying to tackle a 21st century scourge. They’re just not trained, they’re not equipped. I could be lugging a weapon of whatever efficacy, for 10 years, without having the opportunity to use it. And then suddenly I am confronted with terrorists, well-trained, well-equipped, capable of blowing the crap out of me – and I barely know how to hold my gun straight. That is the state of Indian policing.
The reality is that nobody in India, no political party, wants a professional police force.
What do you mean by that?
During the ongoing investigations into the Malegaon blasts [in which Hindu nationalists have been arrested and charged], all the parties related to the Hindu right have been consistently attacking the very people who have laid down their lives in this Mumbai encounter. They have vilified them, they have denigrated them, they have abused them, they have accused them of torture, with the fabrication of case.
Why? Because they are trying to protect certain accused.
Every political party in this country wants to make sure the police investigates only what it wants them to investigate. They do not want an efficient, independent, professional police force. They want to use the police as their partisan thugs. Just a tool, and not a tool for the management of law and order, its declared purpose, but a tool for my political party.
So what will it take to change the mindset?
We have a problem in this country. We have an electorate that is more or less illiterate and ignorant. We have fed the world nonsense about the natural and instinctive wisdom of the people, but the people have no wisdom. They are a rabble and they are more easily led by caste or communal mobilisation than on issues. Unless we are able through public action and the media to generate so much pressure on politicians that they begin to address these issues, the politician himself has shorter routes to power, he will take those.
Early signs point to Pakistan-based Lashkar-i-Taiba, do you agree?
Absolutely. And if there is an Indian role it will be the Students Islamic Movement of India, in a secondary role. I do not see Simi having achieved the capacities to execute an operation of this nature independently.
What is their intent, their goal with this audacious attack?
It’s an attack on everything. It’s an attack to weaken India where you can. And if we can’t weaken India, never mind, just kill as many people as you can. It’s part of a larger campaign that is pan-Islamist. And the second, underlying motivation is Pakistan’s strategic interests. And these have been married into an ideological mobilisation that instrumentalises Islamism.
Is the targeting of foreigners in India a new twist?
As long as local Indian cadres with comparatively local objectives were involved, they were hitting local targets. As they become part, more and more, of the pan-Islamist movement, and their exposure to al Qa’eda ideology becomes deeper and deeper – they start looking for the wider target.
So if it is traced back to Lashkar, how will this affect Indo-Pak relations?
Not at all.
Same old, same old?
Same old, same old. What’s new?
Lashkar’s 2001 attack on the Indian parliament certainly changed Indo-Pak relations [India and Pakistan went to the brink of war].
No country has ever argued that a strong and stable enemy is in its interests. India has now argued that. The entire leadership – the military leadership of this country – is convinced that a strong and stable Pakistan is in our interests, even if Pakistan remains hostile. I have never come across greater and more entrenched stupidity.
You believe the leadership of Pakistan is at the very least aware of these attacks?
Absolutely, without question.
President (Asif Ali) Zardari, Prime Minister (Yusaf Raza) Gilani?
As far as I’m concerned there is only one leadership in Pakistan, that’s the military leadership. I don’t care who’s in government. Democracy makes no difference, elections make no difference, the people in charge are the people with the guns.
Might those people start attacking this problem?
I don’t see the necessary ideological or strategic shift. Everyone in the Pakistan army still believes that India is its principle enemy. And the only instrument they have for India’s containment is terrorism. And the only instrument they have for terrorist mobilisation against India is extremist Islam. So the sheer logic of their belief systems and their strategic calculations means they cannot abandon terrorism, either against India or against Afghanistan.
What about input from foreign sources – Scotland Yard, for instance, the FBI?
No one can come and fight India’s wars. I’m not saying we have nothing to learn, but I have found the ignorance of western experts to be terrifying. They come here and say: ‘Why don’t you do this?’ I say: ‘Have you seen our police stations in India?’ I know that I cannot have a Scotland Yard or Federal Bureau of Investigation here. I would have a parody of the FBI here.
We need to learn from western experience, but western expertise cannot solve our problems.
So India must deal with terrorist attacks for some time to come?
Even if the leadership changes tomorrow, in its intent and orientation, if we begin to fight this within the existing apparatus of government it will take decades. If we have a leadership that starts to fight this on a war footing it will still take years. You don’t understand how complex it is, we see it from the inside and it frightens us.
-- ran in The National, www.thenational.ae, on Dec 1.
Q: Many are calling this India’s September 11. Your thoughts?
A: The entire approach to terrorism in India is sensationalist and tragically transient. Somebody called Mumbai the “soul of India”. Then I would like to say that the soul of India has been attacked again and again and again. What’s the big deal? We did nothing last time. The attacks in 1993 and 2006 both had greater numbers killed. Why does this become September 11? I don’t see that.
This was a meticulously planned operation involving dozens of operatives and lengthy planning – and it came two months after a known terrorist group warned authorities of an attack on Mumbai. Yet Indian intelligence found no clues, no warning signs?
This is not at all surprising. We have no intelligence capacity. Everybody believes the Intelligence Bureau is some million-armed octopus with a presence everywhere in this country. The reality of IB is that it has 3,500 intelligence gatherers across the country. The force dedicated to counter-terrorism is about 200 personnel – this in a country of 1.2 billion. Considering that, I am amazed we are not blown up more often.
Rate the security response to this attack.
I see exemplary courage, exemplary leadership and exemplary dedication to duty, in everybody who responded from the security forces. I see people who are given virtually nothing to fight with and putting everything they have into the fight, with many losing their lives.
And yet finally seven hours after the beginning of the incident the so-called elite counter-terrorism force arrives. That is an absolute structural failure. A terrorism operation can only be contained, in terms of its potential, in the first few minutes, which means the first respondents have to be equipped, trained and capable of if not neutralising than at least containing the terrorists. If the first batch of police had come and immediately engaged with the terrorist they probably would have been able in both of these hotels to isolate the terrorists in small corners of the hotel and minimise the damage.
Many are blaming the police for the extent of the damage and the protraction of the assault.
Look, we are among the most under-policed countries in the world. We have a primitive police force, an early 20th century force trying to tackle a 21st century scourge. They’re just not trained, they’re not equipped. I could be lugging a weapon of whatever efficacy, for 10 years, without having the opportunity to use it. And then suddenly I am confronted with terrorists, well-trained, well-equipped, capable of blowing the crap out of me – and I barely know how to hold my gun straight. That is the state of Indian policing.
The reality is that nobody in India, no political party, wants a professional police force.
What do you mean by that?
During the ongoing investigations into the Malegaon blasts [in which Hindu nationalists have been arrested and charged], all the parties related to the Hindu right have been consistently attacking the very people who have laid down their lives in this Mumbai encounter. They have vilified them, they have denigrated them, they have abused them, they have accused them of torture, with the fabrication of case.
Why? Because they are trying to protect certain accused.
Every political party in this country wants to make sure the police investigates only what it wants them to investigate. They do not want an efficient, independent, professional police force. They want to use the police as their partisan thugs. Just a tool, and not a tool for the management of law and order, its declared purpose, but a tool for my political party.
So what will it take to change the mindset?
We have a problem in this country. We have an electorate that is more or less illiterate and ignorant. We have fed the world nonsense about the natural and instinctive wisdom of the people, but the people have no wisdom. They are a rabble and they are more easily led by caste or communal mobilisation than on issues. Unless we are able through public action and the media to generate so much pressure on politicians that they begin to address these issues, the politician himself has shorter routes to power, he will take those.
Early signs point to Pakistan-based Lashkar-i-Taiba, do you agree?
Absolutely. And if there is an Indian role it will be the Students Islamic Movement of India, in a secondary role. I do not see Simi having achieved the capacities to execute an operation of this nature independently.
What is their intent, their goal with this audacious attack?
It’s an attack on everything. It’s an attack to weaken India where you can. And if we can’t weaken India, never mind, just kill as many people as you can. It’s part of a larger campaign that is pan-Islamist. And the second, underlying motivation is Pakistan’s strategic interests. And these have been married into an ideological mobilisation that instrumentalises Islamism.
Is the targeting of foreigners in India a new twist?
As long as local Indian cadres with comparatively local objectives were involved, they were hitting local targets. As they become part, more and more, of the pan-Islamist movement, and their exposure to al Qa’eda ideology becomes deeper and deeper – they start looking for the wider target.
So if it is traced back to Lashkar, how will this affect Indo-Pak relations?
Not at all.
Same old, same old?
Same old, same old. What’s new?
Lashkar’s 2001 attack on the Indian parliament certainly changed Indo-Pak relations [India and Pakistan went to the brink of war].
No country has ever argued that a strong and stable enemy is in its interests. India has now argued that. The entire leadership – the military leadership of this country – is convinced that a strong and stable Pakistan is in our interests, even if Pakistan remains hostile. I have never come across greater and more entrenched stupidity.
You believe the leadership of Pakistan is at the very least aware of these attacks?
Absolutely, without question.
President (Asif Ali) Zardari, Prime Minister (Yusaf Raza) Gilani?
As far as I’m concerned there is only one leadership in Pakistan, that’s the military leadership. I don’t care who’s in government. Democracy makes no difference, elections make no difference, the people in charge are the people with the guns.
Might those people start attacking this problem?
I don’t see the necessary ideological or strategic shift. Everyone in the Pakistan army still believes that India is its principle enemy. And the only instrument they have for India’s containment is terrorism. And the only instrument they have for terrorist mobilisation against India is extremist Islam. So the sheer logic of their belief systems and their strategic calculations means they cannot abandon terrorism, either against India or against Afghanistan.
What about input from foreign sources – Scotland Yard, for instance, the FBI?
No one can come and fight India’s wars. I’m not saying we have nothing to learn, but I have found the ignorance of western experts to be terrifying. They come here and say: ‘Why don’t you do this?’ I say: ‘Have you seen our police stations in India?’ I know that I cannot have a Scotland Yard or Federal Bureau of Investigation here. I would have a parody of the FBI here.
We need to learn from western experience, but western expertise cannot solve our problems.
So India must deal with terrorist attacks for some time to come?
Even if the leadership changes tomorrow, in its intent and orientation, if we begin to fight this within the existing apparatus of government it will take decades. If we have a leadership that starts to fight this on a war footing it will still take years. You don’t understand how complex it is, we see it from the inside and it frightens us.
-- ran in The National, www.thenational.ae, on Dec 1.
Mumbai Assault Offers Second Chance To Go After Pak Terror
On a hazy December morning seven years ago, a boxy white Ambassador crashed through the outer gates of New Delhi’s Parliament House and slammed into the car of India’s vice president, fortuitously parked to block the building entrance. Five gunmen emerged and began spraying bullets towards the interior, where some of India’s highest-ranking elected leaders were assembled. After half an hour, the attackers had been shot dead by security men, but not before they had killed five policemen, a security guard and a gardener.
The next day, India demanded Pakistan clamp down on Lashkar-I-Taiba (Lit) and Jaish-I-Mohammed (JiM), two terrorist groups suspected in the attack. New Delhi demanded raids on safe houses, leaders captured and financing cut off. Pakistan stood firm, prodding India to deploy troops to its Kashmir and Punjab borders and inciting a tense nuclear stand-off. Fortunately, the parliament attack occurred shortly after September 11, enabling New Delhi to join forces with the United States, which was at the time also strong-arming Pakistan to address its internal terrorism problem.
Responding to the pressure, Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president at the time, banned Lit and JIM in Jan 2002 and vowed that Pakistani territory would not be used to launch cross-border terrorism. About 2,000 members of banned militant groups were rounded up, including Masood Azhar, the head of JIM. In March, US agents, aided by Pakistani intelligence, tracked down and captured an al Qa’eda commander, Abu Zubaydah. Several more raids in the ensuing days corralled more than 60 al Qa’eda suspects, nearly half of whom were foreign-born.
But India was soon distracted by domestic religious violence and the United States by Iraq, allowing Pakistan and the terrorist outfits to return to business as usual. Mr Azhar was released a few months after his capture. Lit and JiM shifted military operations to Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, where an ambiguous legal status means minimal governmental oversight. Within Pakistan proper, Lit continued to operate under its political wing, Jamaat-ud Dawa – whose Nov 2002 conclave attracted more than 100,000 people. Al Qa’eda regrouped in Pakistan’s remote, lawless tribal areas, gaining operational confidence along with the Taliban and the newly formed Pakistani Taliban.
The result? A rash of monstrous terrorist attacks within Pakistan, including the Dec 2007 assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the recent bombing of the Islamabad Marriott; a growing Taliban insurgency that threatens to topple Afghanistan’s toddler democracy; and, finally, a series of bombings across urban India that culminated in last week’s assault in Mumbai.
The Mumbai investigation is ongoing, but as in Dec 2001, early signs point to Lit and JiM. Both have a recent history of fedayeen attacks within India. Much like Mumbai, these are gun-spraying, kamikaze raids on government sites, police stations or other high-profile targets in which the attackers do not expect to survive.
Both, furthermore, have ties to the Pakistani establishment. Although direct links are hard to pin down, Pakistan’s military has for decades been training and supporting jihadi outfits – which its intelligence service, the ISI, then wields as proxies in Kashmir and Afghanistan. The Pakistani government may not have had any knowledge of the Mumbai assault, but its links to terrorism mean it shoulders some responsibility.
So seven years on, here is a second chance to hack at the roots of international terrorism. Although unpopular at home, where enraged citizens are calling for action, India’s muted response is wise. Any act of aggression would play into the hands of terrorists, who seek to destabilise the region.
Refraining from brinkmanship will also increase international sympathy for India and support for its ensuing antiterrorism efforts – including the support and co-operation of terrorism’s greatest victim, Pakistan, whose president, Asif Ali Zardari, has sworn to act on good evidence. Finally, quick strikes are not the answer; rooting out terrorists in Pakistan will take years, not weeks or months.
Condeleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, arrives in New Delhi today. With Pakistan warning it would shift up to 100,000 troops away from its unstable western border to address a possible Indian threat to the east, the United States is worried about Afghanistan. New Delhi can use this leverage to its advantage and agree not to attack Pakistan or threaten to do so as long as Washington does the following:
a) Pushes for complete transparency from Pakistan, including zero tolerance of terrorist outfits from the Pakistani military and the handing over of terrorist bigwigs, such as JiT chief Hafiz Saeed, the JiM leader Azhar and Dawood Ibrahim, a mafia don who masterminded the 1993 Mumbai bombings that killed more than 250. With Ms Rice already urging Pakistan to follow wherever the investigation leads, this is little more than an extension of current US policy.
b) Embraces Indo-US counter-terrorism co-operation, involving sharing of all intelligence on Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan-based terrorist outfits. Terrorism is a global problem based in the South Asian region – only such co-operation will snuff it out.
In return, India should offer to open negotiations with Pakistan on Kashmir. This may seem like rewarding an alleged tormentor, yet neither Pakistan’s new government nor the majority of its people have any blood on their hands. Further, the broader regional vision of the US president-elect, Barack Obama, which sees a resolution on Kashmir as a key to regional peace, is looking prescient.
Apart from religious differences, Kashmir is the wellspring of Indo-Pak tension and distrust. Both Lit and JIM base their Indian antagonism in Kashmir. And in his 2007 book, Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam, Zahid Hussain, a veteran Pakistan journalist, had this to say about Pakistan’s broader internal terrorism problem: “As long as the Kashmiri issue remains unresolved, the government seems prepared to embrace it.”
While the sting of recent failure remains fresh, India, Pakistan and the United States must ensure this golden opportunity does not slip away.
-- ran in The National, www.thenational.ae, Dec 3.
The next day, India demanded Pakistan clamp down on Lashkar-I-Taiba (Lit) and Jaish-I-Mohammed (JiM), two terrorist groups suspected in the attack. New Delhi demanded raids on safe houses, leaders captured and financing cut off. Pakistan stood firm, prodding India to deploy troops to its Kashmir and Punjab borders and inciting a tense nuclear stand-off. Fortunately, the parliament attack occurred shortly after September 11, enabling New Delhi to join forces with the United States, which was at the time also strong-arming Pakistan to address its internal terrorism problem.
Responding to the pressure, Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president at the time, banned Lit and JIM in Jan 2002 and vowed that Pakistani territory would not be used to launch cross-border terrorism. About 2,000 members of banned militant groups were rounded up, including Masood Azhar, the head of JIM. In March, US agents, aided by Pakistani intelligence, tracked down and captured an al Qa’eda commander, Abu Zubaydah. Several more raids in the ensuing days corralled more than 60 al Qa’eda suspects, nearly half of whom were foreign-born.
But India was soon distracted by domestic religious violence and the United States by Iraq, allowing Pakistan and the terrorist outfits to return to business as usual. Mr Azhar was released a few months after his capture. Lit and JiM shifted military operations to Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, where an ambiguous legal status means minimal governmental oversight. Within Pakistan proper, Lit continued to operate under its political wing, Jamaat-ud Dawa – whose Nov 2002 conclave attracted more than 100,000 people. Al Qa’eda regrouped in Pakistan’s remote, lawless tribal areas, gaining operational confidence along with the Taliban and the newly formed Pakistani Taliban.
The result? A rash of monstrous terrorist attacks within Pakistan, including the Dec 2007 assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the recent bombing of the Islamabad Marriott; a growing Taliban insurgency that threatens to topple Afghanistan’s toddler democracy; and, finally, a series of bombings across urban India that culminated in last week’s assault in Mumbai.
The Mumbai investigation is ongoing, but as in Dec 2001, early signs point to Lit and JiM. Both have a recent history of fedayeen attacks within India. Much like Mumbai, these are gun-spraying, kamikaze raids on government sites, police stations or other high-profile targets in which the attackers do not expect to survive.
Both, furthermore, have ties to the Pakistani establishment. Although direct links are hard to pin down, Pakistan’s military has for decades been training and supporting jihadi outfits – which its intelligence service, the ISI, then wields as proxies in Kashmir and Afghanistan. The Pakistani government may not have had any knowledge of the Mumbai assault, but its links to terrorism mean it shoulders some responsibility.
So seven years on, here is a second chance to hack at the roots of international terrorism. Although unpopular at home, where enraged citizens are calling for action, India’s muted response is wise. Any act of aggression would play into the hands of terrorists, who seek to destabilise the region.
Refraining from brinkmanship will also increase international sympathy for India and support for its ensuing antiterrorism efforts – including the support and co-operation of terrorism’s greatest victim, Pakistan, whose president, Asif Ali Zardari, has sworn to act on good evidence. Finally, quick strikes are not the answer; rooting out terrorists in Pakistan will take years, not weeks or months.
Condeleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, arrives in New Delhi today. With Pakistan warning it would shift up to 100,000 troops away from its unstable western border to address a possible Indian threat to the east, the United States is worried about Afghanistan. New Delhi can use this leverage to its advantage and agree not to attack Pakistan or threaten to do so as long as Washington does the following:
a) Pushes for complete transparency from Pakistan, including zero tolerance of terrorist outfits from the Pakistani military and the handing over of terrorist bigwigs, such as JiT chief Hafiz Saeed, the JiM leader Azhar and Dawood Ibrahim, a mafia don who masterminded the 1993 Mumbai bombings that killed more than 250. With Ms Rice already urging Pakistan to follow wherever the investigation leads, this is little more than an extension of current US policy.
b) Embraces Indo-US counter-terrorism co-operation, involving sharing of all intelligence on Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan-based terrorist outfits. Terrorism is a global problem based in the South Asian region – only such co-operation will snuff it out.
In return, India should offer to open negotiations with Pakistan on Kashmir. This may seem like rewarding an alleged tormentor, yet neither Pakistan’s new government nor the majority of its people have any blood on their hands. Further, the broader regional vision of the US president-elect, Barack Obama, which sees a resolution on Kashmir as a key to regional peace, is looking prescient.
Apart from religious differences, Kashmir is the wellspring of Indo-Pak tension and distrust. Both Lit and JIM base their Indian antagonism in Kashmir. And in his 2007 book, Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam, Zahid Hussain, a veteran Pakistan journalist, had this to say about Pakistan’s broader internal terrorism problem: “As long as the Kashmiri issue remains unresolved, the government seems prepared to embrace it.”
While the sting of recent failure remains fresh, India, Pakistan and the United States must ensure this golden opportunity does not slip away.
-- ran in The National, www.thenational.ae, Dec 3.
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